OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In Oil Futures Intact

• Some spillovers in the Dollar following the spike noted earlier in the EURUSD, aside from the order flow we have mentioned at the Time we have not seen a new driver.
• US Equities have pared some gains, but the moves are minimal, and US Tnotes is still hovering closer to its session low.
• It's a new intraday low for the Dollar against the CAD, AUD, NOK, GBP, NZD, ZAR, CNY and CNH.
• The Kiwi is still leading within G10 FX, and targets 0.5937 next.
• The EURUSD is testing 1.1607 20-day EMA, although it did print a 1.1611 high, and recall that there's 1.33bn worth of Option expiry for Today at 1.1600.

Analysts draw a bit mixed conclusions from today's German manufacturing orders data (our commentary here: June Factory Orders Constitute A Move Sideways On Weak Levels), with Commerzbank screening a little more pessimistic than JP Morgan:

• Commerzbank: "Overall, order intake excluding major orders is thus back at the level seen at the beginning of the year, once again dashing hopes for a sustained recovery in German industry. Early indicators such as the purchasing managers' index in the manufacturing sector and the Ifo business climate index had pointed to a slight recovery in the second quarter. However, these positive expectations are clearly not yet reflected in hard order figures. This underlines our assumption that the German economy will only grow moderately this year."
  • "There is now a risk that US tariffs will create further headwinds for German industry. In June, orders from abroad fell by 3.0%. This is exclusively attributable to trade with countries outside the eurozone. This could already be an indication of the damaging effect of US tariffs on German exports."
• JP Morgan: "factory sales and VDA car production showed broad stability, although with some noise [...] Domestic orders are still not really turning higher, which is disappointing, but the fiscal shift is likely to provide support going forward. As a cross-check on the data, the new orders index of the German manufacturing PMI is signalling broadly stable orders at present, rather than positive growth. But even that is an improvement from where the PMI has been a few months ago."

Italian industrial production was stronger-than-expected in June at 0.2% M/M (vs -0.2% cons, a one tenth downwardly revised -0.8 prior). The Italian print follows stronger-than-expected readings in France and Spain yesterday. Germany will release its June IP figures tomorrow morning. 

• Italian manufacturing sentiment data for July points to a continuation of this year’s gradual recovery, with the manufacturing PMI at its highest since March 2024 at 49.8 (vs 48.4 in June) and ISTAT’s manufacturing sentiment series at 87.8 (vs 87.3 in June).
• On a 3m/3m basis, IP rose just 0.1% in June, down from 0.6% in May. ISTAT noted that industry made a negative contribution to total gross value added in Q2, according to flash data released last month.
• Across components, there was slight growth in energy (0.1% M/M), intermediate goods (0.2% M/M) and capital goods (0.1% M/M) production in June. Meanwhile, consumer goods production fell 0.9% M/M (vs -1.3% in May).