GERMAN DATA: June Factory Orders Constitute A Move Sideways On Weak Levels
German factory orders were weaker than expected in June, at -1.0% M/M vs 1.1% consensus even considering a 0.6pp upward revision of the May figures to -0.8% (due to a large-scale order in the manufacture of other transport equipment which was reported late). Excluding large-scale one-offs, June orders were stronger, at +0.5% M/M. Considering that, the print broadly constitutes a move sideways on weak levels. Sentiment (ifo business climate manufacturing balance, Manufacturing PMI) meanwhile stands at cycle highs.
- On a yearly comparison, factory orders came in at 0.8% Y/Y (vs 2.1% cons; 6.1% prior, revised from 5.3%).
- "The negative development of new orders in manufacturing in June 2025 was attributable to a low level of new orders for the manufacture of other transport equipment for the month of June (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles; -23.1% on the previous month after seasonal and calendar adjustment). Declining new orders in the automotive industry (-7.6%) and for the manufacture of fabricated metal products (-12.9%) also has a negative impact on overall performance. By contrast, the increase in new orders for the manufacture of electrical equipment (+23.5%) had a positive effect.", Destatis comments.
- Foreign orders, which carried the overall print in recent times (see chart below), saw a weak sequential reading at -3.0% M/M. Domestic orders meanwhile moved off their post-pandemic lows seen in May, at 2.2% M/M.
- Real turnover in manufacturing, which can provide some signal for the July industrial production release (due tomorrow), was 0.9% M/M and -1.2% Y/Y. Current consensus for July IP stands at -0.5% M/M (1.2% prior) - so there may be some upside risks to tomorrow's print (the correlation between the two releases was a bit mixed recently, however).
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GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3395.1/3451.3 - High Jun 23 / 16
- RES 1: $3365.8 - High Jul 3
- PRICE: $3311.2 @ 07:28 BST Jul 7
- SUP 1: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
- SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg
Recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5, May 29 low. Note that the latest recovery highlights a possible false trendline break. A resumption of gains would refocus attention $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low.
BRENT TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $68.07 @ 07:13 BST Jul 7
- SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30
- SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Short-term conditions in Brent futures are unchanged, the outlook remains bearish. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, and for now, this sell-off continues to highlight a bearish theme. The 50-day EMA has been breached and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose $61.39 next, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.
EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 171.88 High Jul 19 ‘24
- RES 3: 171.28 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: 171.09 High Jul 23 ‘24
- RES 1: 170.73 Intraday high
- PRICE: 170.63 @ 07:19 BST Jul 07
- SUP 1: 169.32 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 168.09 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 167.13 Low Jun 20
- SUP 4: 165.84 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and the cross is starting the week on a firm note, trading to a fresh cycle high. 170.47, 76.4% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 sell-off, has been breached. The break strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for extension towards 171.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought, a pullback would unwind this condition. Support lies at 168.09, the 20-day EMA.
