USDCAD TECHS: Pressuring Resistance

• RES 4: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4415 High Apr 1 
• RES 2: 1.4301 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4274 High Apr 9
• PRICE: 1.4158 @ 15:47 BST Apr 9
• SUP 1: 1.4028 Low Apr 3 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3986 Low Dec 2 ‘24  
• SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24 

USDCAD has recovered from last week’s low. For now, the move higher appears corrective. The sell-off last week confirmed a resumption of the medium-term bear cycle that started Feb 3. Price has traded through a key support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low, and this signals scope for an extension towards 1.3944, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance is seen at 1.4301, the 50-day EMA. 

• Goldman Sachs see core CPI at 0.27% M/M in March, for 3.03% Y/Y.
• “We expect used car prices to decline 0.5%, reflecting a decline in auction prices, and we expect new car prices to increase 0.1%, reflecting a decline in dealer incentives.”
• “We expect a large increase in the car insurance category (+1.0%) based on increases in premiums in our online dataset.”
• “We have penciled in modest upward pressure from tariffs imposed in February on categories that are disproportionately imported from China, such as the apparel, recreation, and communication categories.”
• “Going forward, we expect a boost to monthly inflation from the escalation in tariff policy. Aside from tariff effects, we expect underlying trend inflation to fall further this year, reflecting shrinking contributions from the auto, housing rental, and labor markets that is partially offset by catch-up inflation in healthcare. We expect year-over-year core CPI inflation of +3.7% and core PCE inflation of +3.5% in December 2025.”

• RES 4: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 0.6389 High Apr 3               
• RES 2: 0.6270 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 0.6127/0.6187 High Apr 7 / Low Mar 4   
• PRICE: 0.6018 @ 15:46 BST Apr 9 
• SUP 1: 0.5915 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.5900 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD maintains a bearish tone following the latest steep sell-off. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late September last year. A key support at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low, has been broken. This paves the way for an extension towards the 0.5900 handle next. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. The trend is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind.