BRAZIL: Presidential Candidate Bolsonaro Disappoints

The Atlanta Fed's latest estimate of Q4 GDP has ticked up to 5.30% Q/Q SAAR vs 5.13% in the prior estimate on January 9.

• The biggest single driver to the upward revision was equipment investment, which following the Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report is now seen contributing 0.04pp to GDP in the quarter (vs -0.04% in the prior estimate), a +0.08pp contribution shift with the Atlanta Fed showing a positive growth rate in this column for the first time since it initiated the Q4 nowcast on December 23 (equipmant investment posted 5.4% Q/Q SAAR growth in Q3 and 8.5% in Q2 so this would be a slowdown either way).
• The PCE forecast has been upped to 3.1% from 3.0%, reflecting a solid November retail sales release earlier in the day; we had thought the Nowcast could actually edge lower given the downward revision to Control Group sales in October but the Atlanta Fed may have previously underestimated the strength in November; it still expects a slowdown in quarterly PCE growth at a still-high level (3.1% Q/Q SAAR vs 3.5% in Q3).
• Also contributing a little more are net exports (up 0.02pp to 1.99pp) and government spending (up 0.04pp to 0.27pp, following the federal monthly budget statement).
• But those latter two contributions - plus inventories' 0.82pp - mean that private final demand in the quarter is estimated to slow to the mid-2s from the 3.0% in Q3 and 2.9% in Q2, so in this respect underlying economic activity is moderating despite the gawdy headline estimate.

$27.15B total corporate bonds to price Wednesday:

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 01/13 $6B #JPMorgan $2.6B 6NC5 +63, $400M $6NC5 SOFR, $3B 11NC10 +76
• 01/14 $5B *KFW 5Y SOFR+29
• 01/14 $2B #IFC 3Y SOFR+22
• 01/13 $2B *CABEI 3Y +49
• 01/14 $1.5B #OKB 5Y SOFR+34
• 01/14 $1.5B *CDP Fncl 5Y SOFR+42
• 01/14 $1.55B #Bank of NY Mellon $1.25B 4NC3 +47, $300M 4NC3 SOFR+63
• 01/14 $1.5B #ANZ NZ $500M 3Y +45, $500M 3Y SOFR+61, $500M 5Y SOFR+75
• 01/14 $1.5B #Azule Energy $850M 5NC2 8.25%, $650M 7NC3 8.625%
• 01/14 $1B #MassMutual Global $600M 3Y +50, $400M 3Y SOFR+66
• 01/13 $1B #Aviation Capital $400M +3Y+83, $600M 7Y +115
• 01/13 $1B #Jabil $500M 3Y +67, $500M 7Y +97
• 01/14 $1B *AfDB WNG 10Y SOFR+41
• 01/13 $600M #SQM 30.25NC5 5.625%

US President Donald Trump is shortly due to sign a bill in the Oval Office related to HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr's 'Make America Healthy Again' initiative. LIVESTREAM

• Any press questions at the conclusion of the event are likely to be closely scrutinised by markets for clues on Trump's mindset regarding Iran after he signalled on several occasions yesterday that he could authorise military action in response to Tehran's crackdown on anti-regime protests. 
• Trump is also likely to be questioned on the outcome of today's meeting between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio and counterparts from Denmark and Greenland.