POWER: French-German Day-Ahead Discount Narrows to Two-Week Low

The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts declined, with Germany leading losses amid forecasts for a sharp rise in wind output, with lower load factors of wind in France by comparison led to the FR-DE discount narrowing to its lowest since 31 August (Sat). 

• The German day-ahead spot settled at €53.83/MWh from €90.81/MWh on the previous day.
• The French day-ahead spot cleared at €47.65/MWh from €58.47/MWh on the previous day.
• FR-DE discount was at €6.18/MWh from a €32.34/MWh discount in the previous session.
• German wind is expected at 18.34GW, or a 28% load factor on 14 September and is expected to drop to a 15% load factor, or 9.6GW, on 16 Sept (Mon) – opening the door to the possibility of higher power prices amid rising demand and lower wind.
• German power demand over 14-16 Sept has been revised down by around 300 MW/day and is forecast at 44.1-47.6GW over 14-15 Sept, compared to 55GW forecast for today, with demand then picking up from the weekend to reach around 54GW on 15 Sept.
• In France, wind forecast points to output at 2.96GW, or a 15% load factor on 14 Sept and will rise to a 21% load factor on 16 Sept – which could widen the FR-DE discount, coupled with firm nuclear availability.
• French nuclear availability was up by 2 percentage points on the day at 73% of capacity as of Friday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• Planned maintenance at 1.33GW Flamanville has been brought forward by one day to 14 Sept 23:00 CET.