Powell Says Expectation Remains that Inflation Will Ease in H2

- Q: When will inflation come down? If you don't see that, how will you signal it?

• A: Before the Ukraine invasion, I would have said the expectation was that inflation would peak maybe end Q1 this year, and maybe stay there or a little lower and start coming down the back half of the year. Now we're getting some upward pressure on inflation due to oil prices, other commodities prices.
• Supply chain issues around shipping... that could push out the relief we were expecting on supply chains generally. So expectation still that inflation will come down in H2. (Points to SEP projections): We expect inflation to remain high through the middle of the year, begin to come down and come down more sharply next year.