US TSYS: Post-Trade Balance, Import/Export React
Nov-19 13:33
- Treasuries holding near recent highs after import/export data comes out lower than prior read, trade gap narrows.
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades +3 at 112-28 (112-29 high). Resistance at the 113-02 level in Treasuries, an area of congestion since Nov 5, remains intact.
- A clear breach of this hurdle would be a bullish signal and suggest scope for a climb towards 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. A breach would also cancel a short-term bearish theme. For bears, attention is on 112-10+, the 100-DMA and 112-06, the Sep 25 low. Trendline support also lies at 112-06+.
- Bbg US$ index firmer: +1.48 at 1220.91; SPX eminis firmer: +19.0 at 6858.5 - eyes on Nvidia earnings after the close.
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GILTS: Friday's Net Short Setting Puts An End To Streak Of Short Cover
Oct-20 13:32
After five consecutive sessions of net short cover, OI data suggests short setting dominated in Gilt futures on Friday.
- Gilt futures followed UST counterparts lower on Friday, a combination of easing US/China trade tensions (following less inflammatory rhetoric from President Trump) and cooling fears around US regional bank risks.
- Futures fell 18 ticks on Friday, with OI rising by 2.7k contracts. This compares to a near 30k reduction in total OI from October 10 to October 16.
- Today’s session has been relatively quiet, with Gilts drifting steadily higher (currently +19 at 92.65).
- Focus remains on this week’s UK data, with September public sector finances due tomorrow and September inflation due on Wednesday. MNI’s inflation preview will be released tomorrow morning.
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening Calls
Oct-20 13:26
SPX: 6,706.2 (+0.6%); DJIA: 46,406 (+0.5%/+216pts); NDX: 25,006.4 (+0.8%).
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 10Y Buy
Oct-20 13:19
- +5,000 TYZ5 113-18.5, buy through 113-18 post time offer, DV01 $339,000.
- The 10Y contract trades 113-18.5 last (+3.5)
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