US DATA: Post-Shutdown Data Schedules Should Be Out By Early Next Week
From our FAQs on the post-shutdown data deluge (PDF here)
What data has been postponed, and will postponements continue to be made after the shutdown?
- We assume that federal agencies will fully re-open on Thursday November 14.
- The only real historical analogue to the current situation is the 2013 shutdown which lasted from Oct 1 through Oct 16. That was only a little over 2 weeks compared with the roughly 6 weeks in the current shutdown, and even so it caused multiple data release postponements and even cancellations that reverberated through December.
- Our PDF includes an appendix of the key federal government data points that were postponed from their original release dates in October through the end of this week (we don’t expect any data to be released as scheduled by this Friday).
- In 2013, knock-on effects kept hitting for weeks and months after the shutdown ended, with November releases being postponed. That will be worse this time. It probably increases the probability we will get “doubled-up” releases, certainly for Census Bureau numbers as was the case in 2013, but this time given the logjam it could force combined releases for data points by the BLS too.
When will updated data release schedules be available?
- In October 2013’s shutdown, then-President Obama signed the re-opening bill late Wednesday Oct 16. Federal employees went "back to work" Thursday Oct 17 and on that day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a schedule for postponed and upcoming data releases: we publish the major postponements published by the BLS in an appendix below.
- Almost every data point was postponed, even those due out in November, as the BLS attempted to work through the backlog and collect underlying data. The BLS's first post-shutdown release was Oct 21, which was the following Monday. September Nonfarm Payrolls, which were due out Oct 4, were released Oct 22.
- The BEA and Census Bureau weren't able to come up with a new release schedule until Tuesday Oct 21. BEA is in a relatively tougher spot because it needs data inputs from other federal agencies (including Census Bureau and BLS) for key data points including PCE and GDP, both of which were due to see the latest updates in late October.
- We would expect a similar schedule this time assuming funding is restored by late Wednesday, with BLS able to update on Thursday or at latest Friday on its updated schedule but the BEA and Census Bureau to follow behind by a few days.
- However there will be ongoing assessments as agency workers determine what they are and are not able to compile, so this will be a process, rather than an all-at-once release.
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
