WHITE HOUSE: Politico-VP Vance 'Sceptical' Of Iran Strikes

Politico reports that, according to two Trump administration officials, Vice President JD Vance was a sceptical voice within the White House in the run-up to the launch of strikes on Iran. While the officials emphasised that once the decision was made to go ahead, the VP gave the plan his full backing, there will still be speculation that a schism is emerging between Vance and President Donald Trump. Speaking to reporters earlier in the week, Trump acknowledged the difference of opinion, saying Vance “was, I’d say, philosophically a little different from me. I think he was maybe less enthusiastic about going, but he was still quite enthusiastic.” 

• The VP has been a long-term isolationist voice within the Republican party, and was initially not in favour of US strikes on the Houthis in Yemen in 2025 following attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. The sharp pivot to international intervention in 2026, including the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the strikes on Iran, and threats against Cuba, has resulted in a less-prominent role for Vance in public messaging. Instead, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been front and centre alongside Trump and Secretary of Defense/War Pete Hegseth.  
• The immediate impact of Vance's scepticism is minimal in terms of market relevance. The more notable impact could come further in the future. Trump has spoken of both Vance and Rubio as potential 2028 Republican presidential candidates, while refusing to state a preference. While it is still too far away for any concrete predictions, political prediction markets have shown a narrowing in the gap between the two, with Vance's implied probability of getting the nomination falling from 59% in mid-November to 38.5% presently, according to Polymarket. Meanwhile, Rubio's implied probability has risen from 7.8% to 28.1% in the same timeframe. 

Chart 1. Predictions Market Implied Probability of Winning 2028 Republican Presidential Nomination, %