UKRAINE: Polish PM: 'Many Signs Suggesting War Will Be Halted In Near Future'

Jul-30 08:49

Delivering a speech at the Air Force Institute of Technology on modernisation of the armed forces alongside the Deputy Defence Minister, PM Donald Tusk includes a comment that has garnered some attention. Says that "There is a big chance... there are many signs suggesting that the Russo-Ukrainian war will be at least halted in the nearest future. But it doesn't change our situation in any way. Poland has to be ready to defend itself, regardless of the situation on the Russo-Ukrainian front."

  • Tusk gives no further details on what these signs of a halt to the war might be. As noted earlier (see 'OIL: Cruce Under Pressure as Tusk Sees Signs the Ukraine War May be Suspended', 09:30BST), the most likely 'sign' is the deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Russia to cease hostilities by 8 August or face a ramp-up in sanctions, including secondary sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons.
  • Russia has not offered any official response to Trump's latest deadline, with Kremlin officials only stating they had "taken into account" the US president's comments. 

Historical bullets

FED: Bostic Sees Firms' Tariff Uncertainty lnto 2026, MNI Livestream Later Today

Jun-30 08:44

Atlanta Fed’s Bostic (non-voter) on CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe: “I’m hearing more [businesses] say that they may not expect this whole thing [response to tariffs and other economic factors] to play out, to where they’re at their final strategy, till even 2026, so this could be a much more extended period than I think many expect,”

Bostic spoke to Reuters last week, reiterating his view for just one 25bp cut late this year.

A reminder that MNI has a livestream with Bostic later today at 1000ET/1500BST. You can register for an in-depth discussion on the economic outlook here: https://mni.marketnews.com/RaphaelBostic

ECB: Dovish Commentary from ECB VP De Guindos On Growth, Inflation

Jun-30 08:42
  • "*ECB'S GUINDOS: FACING `BRUTAL UNCERTAINTY'" Bloomberg
  • "*ECB'S GUINDOS: 2Q, 3Q GROWTH WILL BE ALMOST FLAT" Bloomberg
  • "*ECB'S GUINDOS: CONSUMPTION AS A DRIVER HASN'T HAPPENED" Bloomberg
  • "*ECB'S GUINDOS: CONSUMPTION BEING HELD BACK BY UNCERTAINTY" Bloomberg
  • "*ECB'S GUINDOS: SEEN REMARKABLE SERVICES INFLATION DECELERATION" Bloomberg
  • "*ECB'S GUINDOS: CURRENT INTEREST RATE POSITION IS CORRECT" Bloomberg

In its June projections, the ECB projected real GDP at 0.2% Q/Q in Q2 and -0.1% Q/Q in Q3.

MNI: UK BOE APR MORTGAGE APPROVALS 63,032

Jun-30 08:30
  • MNI: UK BOE APR MORTGAGE APPROVALS 63,032
  • UK BOE APR SECURED LENDING GBP2.05 BLN
  • UK BOE APR CONSUMER CREDIT GBP0.86 BLN