POLAND: Gov Set to receive EDP Warning, But Immediate Impact Limited
Jun-19 07:50
- Poland, among other countries, are expected to be subject to the launch of an Excessive Deficit Procedure from the European Commission - targeting countries breaching a deficit limit of 3%/GDP. MNI spoke to EU Officials yesterday, who stated the notice will only be followed by detailed requirements for fiscal adjustments in the late autumn, delaying the worst political impact by several months.
- Rzeczpospolita reported this morning that the government are looking to buy into the Airbus Consortium via a special stock issue that would be directed to the Polish state. The purchase would be part of plans outlined by the Defence Ministry earlier this year, and presented to Tusk.
- Tusk spoke late yesterday on the region's "East Shield" border fortification plan, stating that it is "most likely" that Baltic states will join the project - with the EU's backing. Tusk also noted a common air defense could be established between Poland and Greece - which again has full EU support.
- Consumer confidence data is due later today, expected at -13.5 (Prev. -13.8).
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
GILTS: Little Changed After Early Look Lower
May-20 07:38
Gilt futures initially edge lower before recovering, as the impulses from wider core global FI markets drive the space in early Monday trade.
- Lows of 97.83 were printed, before a recovery to the 97.95 area, with the contract now a little above late Friday levels.
- The contract has pulled back from its recent highs. A break of 98.76, the May 16 high, would confirm a resumption of the current bull cycle. Initial firm support has been defined at 97.23, the May 14 low.
- Cash gilt yields are essentially unchanged across the curve.
- SONIA futures are generally a little above pre-gilt open levels, last flat to -2.0.
- The death of the Iranian President hasn’t provided a tangible increase in the geopolitical risk premium.
- Meanwhile, weekend UK headline flow was confined to an uptick in the Rightmove house price index and news that a group of Conservative Party backbenchers has demanded a review of the BoE’s independence. Neither of those matters should be market moving.
- Outgoing BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent will deliver a ‘workshop’ on “New evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism work” this morning, headlines could start to filter out from 10:00 London.
- Elsewhere, the DMO will hold its quarterly consultation with investors/GEMM and the BoE will conduct GBP750mn of medium term APF gilt sales.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call condor vs Put
May-20 07:37
ERU4 96.375/96.50/96.625/96.75c condor vs 96.25p, bought the condor for 5.5 in 3k.
US TSY FUTURES: Roll pace
May-20 07:35
- US Treasuries will be the first Bonds to start rolling, as Investors move from the June to the September expiry.
- This should start to pick up into Friday and next week ahead of the first notice on the 31st May:
Roll pace (still too early):
- Ultra Bond: 1%.
- Tbond: 4%.
- Ultra 10: 2%.
- Tnotes: 2%.
- FVA: 2%.
- TUA: 1%.
Trending Top
Mar-27 20:13
