INDIA: PMI Manufacturing Weakest Since February
- India's PMI Manufacturing fell to its lowest since February with today's release of the Preliminary November numbers.
- At +57.4 it was materially down from the prior month of +59.2 with output down to 60.7 from 63.7 and new orders down from the month prior.
- PMI services was up at +59.5 from +58.9 in October as employment fell to 51.2 from 51.4 for the lowest reading since April 2024 and prices charged down.
- Whilst these numbers are weaker, the PMIs have held up strongly through the middle part of the year in the face of the US India trade war, with many forecasters expecting a fall earlier in the year.
- India's PMIs remain higher than regional peers and the weakening today will not impact monetary policy for now, but will watched in case the declines continue in the coming months.
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 22-Oct | 1200 | EU | ECB de Guindos at Barcelona Real Assets Meeting |
| 22-Oct | 1325 | EU | ECB Lagarde at Frankfurt Finance & Future Summit |
| 23-Oct | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 23-Oct | --- | EU | ECB Lagarde at Euro Summit in Brussels |
| 23-Oct | 1430 | EU | ECB Lane Award Acceptance Speech |
| 23-Oct | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 24-Oct | 0745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 24-Oct | 0800 | ES | PPI |
| 24-Oct | 0815 | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI (p) |
| 24-Oct | 0830 | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI (p) |
| 24-Oct | 0900 | EU | S&P PMIs (p) / ECB Cipollone on International Finance |
| 24-Oct | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 27-Oct | 0900 | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey / M3 |
| 27-Oct | 0900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 27-Oct | 0915 | EU | ECB Elderson Keynote on Banking Governance |
| 28-Oct | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 28-Oct | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Business / Consumer Confidence |
| 28-Oct | 0900 | EU | ECB Bank Lending Survey |
BUND TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 130.99 76.4% retracement of Jun 13 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: 130.80 High Jun 13 and key resistance
- RES 2: 130.63 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 130.59 High Oct 17
- PRICE: 130.22 @ 05:49 BST Oct 22
- SUP 1: 129.76 Low Oct 20
- SUP 2: 129.30 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 128.96 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 128.25 Low Oct 7
Short-term resistance in Bund futures remains intact for now. The trend outlook is bullish following recent strong impulsive gains and sights are on the next key resistance at 130.80, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that the contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is 129.30, the 20-day EMA.
FOREX: USD Largely Holding Recent Gains, Japan Fiscal Package May Exceed Last Yr
The USD index sits a touch off Tuesday session highs, last near 1212. Cross asset trends have focused on gold volatility, although this hasn't spilled over much to the majors, with moves at 0.20% or less at this stage (AUD and NZD are ticking up). US equity futures have been supported on dips, while US Tsy yields continued to bias lower, which could be capping US upside, although this most recent BBDXY index bounce has come with the real US 10yr yield falling back to 1.70% (not far off Sep lows). Policy initiatives from the new Japan government have been the other focus point, but again Japan wide asset moves are not significant, with further details awaited.
- Japan's Growth Strategy Minister Minoru Kiuchi stated that the focus now is compiling an economic stimulus package, albeit with on eye still on fiscal discipline (DJ) (and diverse funding sources). Various ministers are being consulted, with a focus on helping tariff impacted sectors, along with cost of living relief. Kiuchi stated that no timeline is set on when the economic package will compiled.
- Following Rtrs reported: "JAPAN'S NEW PM TAKAICHI IS PREPARING ECONOMIC STIMULUS EXPECTED TO EXCEED LAST YEAR'S 13.9 TRILLION YEN ($92.2 BILLION), SOURCES SAY", although details aren't finalised yet, with the package potentially out next month.
- USD/JPY has held under 152.00 today, but dips to 151.50 have been supported. Japan equities are modestly higher, while JGB yields are drifting slightly lower.
- AUD and NZD have ticked up, likely aided by the rise in US equity futures. Local news flow has been light. AUD/USD is back around 0.6500, while NZD/USD has edged up to 0.5750, with upside focus to rest at the 0.5760 region (also note the 20-day EMA is at 0.5770/75).
- Later UK September CPI data print and ECB President Lagarde and Board members Buch and de Guindos speak.
