DENMARK: PM & Foreign Minister's Parties Get Polling Boost Amid Greenland Furore

With the Danish election due no later than 31 October, the geopolitical furore that has dominated headlines in Europe and North America over the past fortnight, the Trump administration's demand that Greenland must come under US control, is already having an impact on the potential outcome. 

• PM Mette Frederiksen and her centre-left Social Democrats have been in power since 2019, first at the head of a leftist coalition, and then since 2022 as part of a 'grand coalition' incorporating the centre-right Venstre and centrist Moderates. Over the course of 2025, support for the Social Democrats steadily declined, from around 25% to under 20%, and in some cases falling behind the left-wing Socialist People's Party as the most popular political force.
• This came as part of a broader slump in support for parties of the left (collectively known as the 'Red Bloc'), while support for the right-leaning 'Blue Bloc' increased to the point where polls showed the parties of the right more popular than the left from mid-2025 onwards.
• This was the case up until Trump and other US officials ramped up their rhetoric regarding Greenland, resulting in a strong rebuttal from the Danish gov't. The two most prominent figures in defending the sovereignty of Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark have been Frederiksen and Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen. Coincidentally, Fredrisken's Social Democrats and Rasmussen's Moderates have both experienced a notable bump in polling support (see charts below).
• While there could be as many as nine months until the election, the rising expectation that the Blue Bloc could win a majority and oust the PM, or that Frederiksen's position would be at risk if the Social Democrats were not the largest party in a Red Bloc gov't no longer look assured. 

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, by Party (LHS) and by Bloc (RHS), % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Voxmeter, Megafon, Epinion, Verian, MNI. N.b. Red Bloc: Social Democrats, Unity List, Socialist People's Party, Alternative, Social Liberals. Blue Bloc: Venstre, Liberal Alliance, Conservatives, People's Party, Denmark Democrats, Citizens' Party.