USDCAD TECHS: Pivot Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.2710/3803 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 1.3633 @ 07:53 BST Jun 27
- SUP 1: 1.3618 Low Jun 26
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
USDCAD has pulled back from its recent highs. The primary downtrend remains intact and short-term gains appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this price point would resume the downtrend. Any reversal higher would instead signal scope for a stronger retracement. Pivot resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3803.
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STIR: Dec BoE Pricing Continues To Show 35-40bp Of Cuts
A flat start for GBP STIRs today, with Bunds and Tsys trading around levels seen at yesterday’s SONIA futures settlement window after sub-par demand at a 40-Year JGB auction applied some pressure overnight.
- SONIA futures -1.0 to +2.0, strip twist flattens.
- BoE-dated OIS within 1bp of yesterday’s closing levels, showing 36bp of cuts through year-end, with ~60% odds of the next 25bp cut priced through the end of the September MPC and 29.5bp of cuts priced through November.
- A text covering comments from BoE chief economist Pill will be released today (on the topic of “monetary policy: taking a walk on the supply side”) although don’t expect it to be market moving as the address was given on Thursday of last week.
- A reminder that Pill has already reaffirmed his position at the hawkish end of the BoE spectrum after lodging a dissenting vote earlier this month (to leave rates on hold).
- Macro cues should be at the fore for much of today.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-25 | 4.221 | +1.0 |
Aug-25 | 4.105 | -10.6 |
Sep-25 | 4.055 | -15.6 |
Nov-25 | 3.916 | -29.5 |
Dec-25 | 3.853 | -35.8 |
Feb-26 | 3.754 | -45.7 |
Mar-26 | 3.742 | -46.8 |
MNI: FRANCE GDP Q1 2ND EST +0.1% Q/Q
- MNI: FRANCE GDP Q1 2ND EST +0.1% Q/Q
- FRANCE GDP Q1 2ND EST +0.6% Y/Y
MNI: FRANCE APR CONSUMER SPENDING +0.3% M/M, -0.1% Y/Y
- MNI: FRANCE APR CONSUMER SPENDING +0.3% M/M, -0.1% Y/Y
- MNI: FRANCE APR CONSUMER MANUF SPENDING +1.5% M/M, +0.8% Y/Y
