US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Payroll Breakeven Estimates In A 50-100k Range [1/2]
Sep-04 19:12
[The below is taken from the MNI Payrolls Preview, with an addition from Kashkari after yesterday's comments. For context, Bloomberg consensus currently sees nonfarm payrolls growth of 75k in August, leaving prospects for some confusion over how 'strong' payrolls growth actually is. We expect the unemployment rate to be watched even more closely against this backdrop]
- There continues to be focus on the potential “breakeven” rate of payrolls growth, that is the pace at which the unemployment rate would be kept steady when allowing for differences between the establishment and household surveys.
- With significant moderation in labor force growth having broadly come along with reduced labor demand, there appears to be a rough range of estimates that this breakeven rate could be between 50-100k.
- Of the FOMC members, the estimates tend to be capped at either end by those from the hawkish and dovish end of the spectrum. St Louis Fed’s Musalem, a ’25 FOMC voter and clear hawk, thinks it’s reasonable to expect the breakeven rate could be below 50k whereas Fed Governor Waller, a firm dove seen as leading contender for next Fed Chair, viewed it a few months ago as being in the 80-100k region.
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US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Inching Lower After Mixed Earnings Results
Aug-05 19:02
- Stocks hold modestly weaker late Tuesday, near lows as carry-over buy-the-dip support that buoyed Monday's action loses momentum. Currently, the DJIA trades down 50.65 points (-0.11%) at 44123.82, S&P E-Minis down 26.75 points (-0.42%) at 6329.75, Nasdaq down 123.8 points (-0.6%) at 20930.18.
- Sector trade remained generally mixed with Materials/Utility, Consumer Discretionary, Pharmaceuticals and Tech stocks leading both gainers and decliners in late trade.
- Leading decliners includes: Gartner -28.48% after missing revenue guidance, Vertex Pharmaceuticals -19.14%, TransDigm Group -13.85%, Zebra Technologies -10.96%, Henry Schein -8.87%, Eaton Corp -6.41%, IDEXX Laboratories -5.83%, ONEOK -4.40%, Datadog -4.24%, Accenture -4.17% and Monolithic Power Systems -4.09%.
- Gainers included: defense stock Axon Enterprise +14.91% after better than expected earnings and several analyst upgrades, Leidos Holdings +6.92% on strong AI demand driving better than expected earnings, Pfizer +5.27%, Archer-Daniels-Midland +5.26%, Intel +3.97%, UnitedHealth Group +3.80%, CVS Health +3.25%, Dow +3.15%, Newmont Corp +2.65%.
- Late Tuesday earnings announcements: Amgen Inc, Rivian Automotive, Arista Networks, Advanced Micro Devices, Match Group, Mosaic, Snap, International Flavors & Fragrances and Super Micro Computer.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
Aug-05 19:00
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 170.79 @ 16:50 BST Aug 5
- SUP 1: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 2: 169.27 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23
A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.27. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $2B Standard Chartered Launched
Aug-05 18:38
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 08/05 $2B #Standard Chartered 11NC10 +120
- 08/05 $1.9B #Daimler Truck $550M 2Y +60, $750M +5Y +92, $600M +7Y +105
- 08/05 $1.25B #Tennessee Valley Authority 5Y +20
- 08/05 $1.25B #MSCI 10Y +112.5
- 08/05 $1B #Macquarie Bank 11NC10 +145
- 08/05 $500M #Essential Utilities 10Y +107
- 08/05 $500M #Healthpeak LLC +7Y +92
- 08/05 $500M #CNA Financial WNG 10Y +103
- 08/05 $500M Freedom Mortgage 7.75NC3
- 08/06 $500M Travel + Leisure 8NC3
