Still bid, Treasury futures are paring gains after solid Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data for December (and up-revisions for prior).
Tsy Mar'25 10Y futures trade 108-22 (+2.5) after rising to 108-27.5 coming into the session. Current level still well above overnight low of 108-16.5.
Curves remain flatt: 2s10s -3.211 at 34.825, 5s30s -3.079 at 42.615.
Brightmine median basic pay awards in the 3 months to November remained at 4.0% for the fifth consecutive month. The press release notes this is the "start of the downward trend that the Brightmine 2025 Pay Forecast report predicts will continue into next year."
There has been an increase in the dispersion of pay awards with the interquartile range having picked up in recent months.
The release states "Despite more challenging conditions this year, organisations have still opted for pay increases rather than freezing pay, and they expect to continue doing so in 2025 despite a more complex landscape."
The rolling quarter of data is based on 22 pay awards between September 1 and 30 November 2024 covering approximately 227,000 employees (down from 64 in the July to September period covering 433,000 employees).