US TSYS: Paring Gains Post-IP/Cap-U Data

Jan-17 14:19
  • Still bid, Treasury futures are paring gains after solid Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data for December (and up-revisions for prior).
  • Tsy Mar'25 10Y futures trade 108-22 (+2.5) after rising to 108-27.5 coming into the session. Current level still well above overnight low of 108-16.5.
  • Curves remain flatt: 2s10s -3.211 at 34.825, 5s30s -3.079 at 42.615.

Historical bullets

Brightmine: Median Pay Awards Remain at 4%

Dec-18 14:16
  • Brightmine median basic pay awards in the 3 months to November remained at 4.0% for the fifth consecutive month. The press release notes this is the "start of the downward trend that the Brightmine 2025 Pay Forecast report predicts will continue into next year."
  • There has been an increase in the dispersion of pay awards with the interquartile range having picked up in recent months.
  • The release states "Despite more challenging conditions this year, organisations have still opted for pay increases rather than freezing pay, and they expect to continue doing so in 2025 despite a more complex landscape."
  • The rolling quarter of data is based on 22 pay awards between September 1 and 30 November 2024 covering approximately 227,000 employees (down from 64 in the July to September period covering 433,000 employees).

US: SFR ps spread

Dec-18 14:15

SFRF5/G5 95.75/95.62ps spread sold at 1.5 in 4k.

US TSY OPTIONS: TY Weekly outright call buyer

Dec-18 14:11

US TY Weekly Option, expiry Friday.

  • TY 110.50c, bought for '02 in ~11k.