US DATA: Only Modest CPI Seasonal Adjustment Revisions

Feb-13 13:46

Core CPI at 0.30% M/M in January after 0.23% M/M in Dec (0.24% M/M first reported).
Minimal revisions from the new seasonal adjustment factors, with headline and core CPI a touch weaker in Dec, slightly stronger over that two-month average across Oct-Nov and then weaker in Sep.
Within core, services led the downward revision to Dec (-0.02pps to 0.27% M/M) whilst core goods was revised 0.03pps higher but only to 0.03% M/M.
The new factors appear to have slightly dampened down on Jan residual seasonality patterns, with the Jan 2025 increase trimmed from 0.45% M/M to 0.43% M/M, led by core services being trimmed by 0.05pps for its most across the year.
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Jan-14 13:40

0RH6 98.00/97.93/97.87/97.62p condor 2x1x3x2, bought for 3.75 in 8k x 4k x 12k x 8k.

Jan-14 13:36

Treasury futures maintain modest bid, some sporadic selling keeping lid on prices after PPI MoM comes in as estimated, strong core as YoY rises slightly, Retail Sales marginal gain with prior down-revised
TYH6 trades 112-12.5 (+2) vs 112-05.5 low / 112-14 high, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 112-31, the Dec 18 high.
On the flipside, a bear threat in Treasuries remains present and for now, short-term gains are considered corrective. Attention is on support at 111-29, the Dec 10 low and bear trigger. A break of it would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle. Note too that a head and shoulders reversal pattern on the daily chart also highlights a bearish threat. Scope is seen for a move towards 111-19 initially, a Fibonacci projection.
Bbg US Dollar index retreats to 1210.83 (-0.81).

Jan-14 13:34

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