GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Oil Up, As Trump To Be Briefed On Iran Military Options

Bitcoin had a range overnight of $66,183.62 - $68,098.44, Asia is currently trading around $67,850, +1.90%. The market continues to hold up pretty well considering the risk back drop, consolidating within a wider $60k-$80k range. It looks to be finally finding some consistent demand on a $60k handle as it continues to attempt to form a decent base from which to test the $75-$80k resistance at some point. I think we continue to do some work around here and suspect we will chop around between $60k-$80k for a while. Strategy has again been very active, adding to their already very large longs, with the use of both preferred and common stock to boost their holdings. The price action has not been great for someone who has bought a couple of Billion $’s worth, but there are reports that he is not the only “Whale” to be adding to their longs. Though the sale by Nakamoto shows the pressure these underwater Bitcoin treasury companies are currently facing, something Strategy has so far managed to avoid.

• Solid Intel on X: “David Bailey’s “Nakamoto” says it sold $20 million in bitcoin at $70,422, below its $118,171 average cost.”
• Subu Trade on X: “Large Speculators are extremely net-long Bitcoin. Such extreme positioning was last seen in 2023, before Bitcoin rallied.”  See Fig.1 below.
• Davinci Jeremie on X: “Large whales are accumulating $BTC now. They were silent in Q4 2025, while retail was buying. Now, retail is silent and whales are buying.”
• Bitcoin’s Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: $2,377 

Fig 1: Bitcoin Large Speculator Net Position

Source: MNI - Market News/@SubuTrade

The EUR/USD range overnight  was 1.1443-1.1521, Asia is currently trading around 1.1475, +0.10%. The pair traded heavily overnight as risk extended lower and month-end USD demand added to its headwinds. The pair remains above its pivotal support in the 1.14-1.15 area for now but I still prefer to be fading bounces as the USD looks to be potentially breaking higher. This morning we have seen a report that Trump is looking for his off-ramp and could end the war even without control of the Straits of Hormuz. This has seen a market that has come a long way have a relief rally as it hopes for a cessation. Unfortunately we have seen this movie before and though I do not doubt Trump would love to find a way out of this mess it is much harder to achieve practically without damaging all his relationships in the GCC. So until a clear path is evident and the global flow of oil, fertilizer and helium is restored I will err on the side of caution. On the day, I would be watching to see if the EUR is able to sustain this move below 1.1500, if not look for sellers to re-emerge back toward 1.1530-1.1560 and then the 1.1650 area. Lots of Optionality in the 1.1450-1.1500 Area into month-end.

• MNI BRIEF: US Firms, Consumers Bearing 95% Of Tariff Hit - ECB. Higher US tariffs are being absorbed 95% by U.S. firms and consumers, with only 5% of costs being borne by foreign firms, according to European Central Bank analysis published In an Economic Bulletin pre-release on Monday.
• “German inflation accelerated sharply in March after the Iran war boosted energy costs, bolstering the case for ECB rate hikes.” - BBG
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 1.1500(EU2.46b), 1.1600(EU1.4b), 1.1700(EU1.32b). Upcoming Close Strikes : 1.1450(EU2.55b April 1), 1.1500(EU4.06b April 1), 1.1700(EU2.78b April 1) - BBG
• The EUR/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 75 Points

Fig 1 : EUR/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

JGB futures have seen some volatility to start Tuesday trade, but are maintaining a positive bias, consistent with regional themes. We were last 130.45, +.11 versus settlement levels. Futures are up around the region, amid a positive risk mood in the equity space and lower oil prices. This follows WSJ headlines that Trump may end the war with Iran without re-opening the Strait Of Hormuz. JGB yields are down across the key benchmarks with the back end leading. 

• Still for JGB futures we can go higher without threatening bearish technical conditions, with the 50-day EMA comfortably above 131.00.  
• Earlier we had the Mar Tokyo CPI, which was slightly below forecasts for headline, printing 1.4%y/y, while core (ex fresh food, energy) was at 2.3%y/y, versus 2.5% prior. Still, some of the sub-categories showed firm m/m gains (outside of food).
• Other data showed a slightly better jobless rate at 2.6% (2.7% was forecast), while retail sales fell -0.2%y/y versus 0.9% forecast for Feb. Preliminary IP for Feb was close to market forecasts, 0.3%y/y (0.4% was forecast).
• Most parts of the 3-20yr tenors for JGB yields are down 1-3bps. The 2yr is sticky, holding near 1.36%. We have the 2yr auction later as a focus point.
• The 30 and 40yr tenors are down 7-9bps, unwinding a good part of yesterday's gains.