OIL: Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Rises
Dec-11 16:25
Crude markets are higher today after the US CPI data came in line and US crude stocks showed a larger than expected draw.
- Brent FEB 25 up 1.2% at 73.06$/bbl
- WTI JAN 25 up 1.6% at 69.67$/bbl
- CPI Nov'24 Unrounded % M/M (SA): Headline 0.313%; Core: 0.308% (0.280% prior mth)
- OPEC lowered its annual demand growth to 1.61m b/d for 2024, down 210k b/d compared to last month’s assessment, according to its MOMR.
- EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Dec 06: Crude stocks -1,425 vs Exp -744, Crude production +118, SPR stocks +724, Cushing stocks -1,298
- The Biden administration is considering stricter sanctions on Russia’s oil exports before Trump takes office in January, which if enforced could reduce global supply.
- The Biden administration is poised to unveil steep new tariffs on imports of critical materials from China in its final effort to protect US manufacturing from the Asian superpower’s dominant cleantech industry
- ARA crude storage rebounded up 8.1%, or 3.97mbbls, in the week ended Dec. 6 to 52.73mbbls according to Genscape.
- Global oil inventories are expected to decline by 200kb/d in Q1 2025 and 100kb/d next year, according to Standard Chartered cited by Bloomberg.
- Black Sea CPC oil loadings rose by 11% in November on the month to 4.965m mt.
- The oil market will be “almost balanced” and not be as oversupplied as many expect and will trade around $80/bbl next year, according to UBS cited by Bloomberg.
- Exxon Mobil aims to raise overall oil and gas output up about 18% by 2030 to 5.4mbpd, from roughly 4.58mbpd currently, according to Reuters.
- MNI Commodity Weekly: 2025 Demand Outlook in Focus: https://enews.marketnews.com/ct/x/pjJsdgGJluoI6a1mKhx-Ew~k1zZ8KXr-kA8x67GW5eiptIPjL4SdA
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JAPAN: PM Ishiba Secures Re-Election, But Minority Admin Leaves Gov't Vulnerable
Nov-11 16:17
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba secured re-election as Japan's prime minister earlier on 11 November in a special session of the National Diet (the two chambers of Japan's parliament). For the first time in three decades, the vote went to a run-off after no PM candidate received an overall majority in the first round where an overall majority was required. Ishiba beat centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) leader Yoshihiko Noda by 221 votes to 160, with 84 votes deemed invalid (due to refusal to back either runoff candidate).
- Ishiba has indicated his intention to govern at the head of a minority gov't comprised of his conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its long-time ally the Komeito party. Together, these two hold 221 seats in the 465-member House of Representatives. As such, the gov't will rely on the support of smaller parties on a vote-by-vote basis.
- The centrist Democratic Party for the People (DPP), which came in fourth place in the election, has been courted by both the LDP and CDP. A scandal surrounding DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki does not appear to have dealt him a fatal blow among party colleagues. As such, he sits in a powerful position in being one of the key determinants of whether the gov't will be able to enact its policy agenda.
US STOCKS: Off Early Record Highs, DJIA Outperforming
Nov-11 16:17
- Stocks resumed their climbed to new record highs early Monday, have scaled back support by midmorning. Monday's Veteran's Day holiday contributed to a relatively quiet start to the week with the DJIA trading up 376.25 points (0.86%) at 44362.84, S&P E-Minis up 13.5 points (0.22%) at 6039, Nasdaq up 12.3 points (0.1%) at 19299.29.
- Headline leading gainers include: Bristol-Myers Squibb +12.5% (wires tied the bid to Abbvie's sell-off), Albemarle +8.38, Tesla +8.0%, Cigna +7.10% as it announced it would not pursue a merger with Humana (-4.25%).
- Headline laggers include: Monolithic Power -19.64% (amid power supply management concerns for Nvidia high-end AI chips), Abbvie -12.38% (due to trial failure of it's Schizophrenia and Parkinson medications), Super Micro Computer -10.38% as AI related demand for some tech stocks continues to cool.
- The latest earnings cycle is nearly over with a few big names expected this week: Live Nation Entertainment after today's close followed by: Home Depot, Hertz, Occidental Petroleum, Skyworks Solutions, Cisco, Walt Disney, Applied Materials, Williams-Sonoma, Copart and Cogent Biosciences.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Nov-11 16:14
- EUR/USD: Nov13 $1.0600-05(E1.5bln), $1.0700-20(E1.2bln), $1.1000-16(E2.0bln); Nov14 $1.0635-50(E1.7bln), $1.0750(E1.2bln); Nov15 $1.0500(E1.6bln), $1.0590-00(E1.2bln), $1.0700(E3.2bln), $1.0800(E1.9bln)
- USD/JPY: Nov14 Y151.50($2bln); Nov15 Y151.00($1.5bln)
- USD/CNY: Nov13 Cny7.1000($1.0bln); Nov14 Cny7.2000($1.8bln)
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