OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Rise
Oct-23 18:17
Crack have diverged in US hours, with diesel holding gains while gasoline reversing into losses. Cracks had been supported earlier as the market digests the impacts of US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, alongside reports of further drone-related refinery disruption in Russia.
- US gasoline crack down 0.3$/bbl at 16.7$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 2.6$/bbl at 37.92$/bbl
- Rosneft’s German unit, which was seized by the country’s government in 2022, may be cut off from key customers since it wasn’t excluded from the latest US sanctions on Russia, Bloomberg reports.
- Bulgaria has until Nov. 21 to find a solution for the ownership of its Neftohim refinery after the US sanctions on Lukoil, said Bulgarian Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov cited by Bloomberg.
- A fire and explosions have been reported in the area of the Ryazan oil refinery, according to local media sources. Ukraine has claimed the attack.
- Several suppliers of Middle Eastern and Canadian oil have cancelled sales to China’s Yulong refinery following the latest UK sanctions, Reuters sources report. The refinery was sanctioned for buying Russian oil.
- India is shifting growing volumes of its gasoil to Africa and South America as incoming EU sanctions have threatened trade to the bloc, Platts reports.
- China’s weekly gasoline production fell by 44.7k mt to 2.975m mt for the seven days to Oct. 23, OilChem said.
- Singapore total oil inventories have risen by 3.059mbbl in the week to Oct. 22 to 51.412mbbl to the second highest since December, according to Enterprise data cited by Bloomberg.
- European ARA Gasoil stocks dipped lower on the week but remain just above the seasonal five-year average, according to the latest Insights Global data.
- MNI: New Russian Oil Sanctions: Overview and Implications:
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BOC: GLOBAL TRADE, US BUDGET imbalances THREATEN MKT STABILITY
Sep-23 18:15
- BOC: GLOBAL TRADE, US BUDGET IMBALANCES THREATEN MKT STABILITY
- BOC SAYS TRUMP TARIFFS HURT US DOLLAR'S ROLE AS RESERVE ASSET
- BOC SAYS IT CAN'T UNDO TARIFF DAMAGE, ONLY STABILIZE ECONOMY
BOC: Ahead Of Macklem Speech, Next Cut Not Fully Priced Until January
Sep-23 18:01
Reminder that BOC Governor Macklem speaks soon on "Global trade and capital flows" before the Saskatchewan Trade and Export Partnership and the Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce - timing of approximately 1430ET. Macklem will take reporters' questions at around 1545ET.
- Livestream link here
- Implied BOC meeting cut pricing is little changed this week so far, with October's pointing to around 55-60% implied probability of a follow-up 25bp rate cut (~14bp, depending on your CORRA assumptions), and a 25bp cut fully priced cumulatively by January. There's still only one full cut still seen for the cycle, though.
- Indeed, pricing hasn't changed much since last week's post-meeting press conference, in which Macklem entertained questions about what would trigger a further cut. The overall communications highlighted risks to growth and employment alongside what the BOC sees as better-contained inflationary pressures than had been feared in the summer. MNI's review of the meeting is here
- He continually mentioned the need for a balanced approach to future rate-setting, moving meeting-by- meeting and keeping the next decision in October live. This was summed up by his comment: “what we can do is help the economy adjust while maintaining wellcontrolled inflation. That's what we're focused on... it's going to be about balancing those risks. If the risks tilt, if the risks shift, we're prepared to take action, and if the risks tilt further, we're prepared to take more action, but we're going to take it one meeting at a time. We are taking a shorter horizon. We're being a little less forward looking than usual, and we'll make that risk assessment in October when we get there."
| Meeting | Current | Last Week's Close (Sep 19) | Change since then | Cumulative Change From Current Rate (bp) |
| Oct 29 2025 | 2.40 | 2.41 | -0.8 | -14.3 |
| Dec 10 2025 | 2.32 | 2.32 | -0.1 | -22.3 |
| Jan 28 2026 | 2.28 | 2.27 | 0.5 | -26.9 |
| Mar 18 2026 | 2.23 | 2.25 | -1.3 | -31.1 |
| Apr 29 2026 | 2.20 | 2.22 | -1.7 | -34.2 |
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $4.5B Enel Finance 4Pt Launched
Sep-23 17:59
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 09/23 $5B #Lowes $650M 2Y +37, $750M 3Y +47, $1.1B +5Y +62, $1.3B 7Y +67, $1.2B 10Y +77
- 09/23 $4.5B #Enel Finance $1B 3Y +65, $1.25B 5Y +80, $1.25B 10Y +100, $1B 30Y +112
- 09/23 $1.5B #MuniFin 3Y SOFR+35
- 09/23 $1.2B #Gildan Activewear $600M each: 5Y +103, 10Y +130
- 09/23 $1B #Nationwide BS $700M 5Y +68, $300M 5Y SOFR+101
- 09/23 $500M #AfDB PerpNC10 5.875%
- 09/23 $500M #CK Hutchison 5Y +62.5
- 09/23 $Benchmark American Electric 30.5NC5.25 5.8%, 30.5NC10.25 6.05%
