OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: WTI Falls Slightly
Nov-17 19:32
WTI has ticked down slightly today, with pressure from a resumption in loadings at Russia’s Novorossiysk following drone strikes Nov. 14.
- WTI DEC 25 down 0.3% at 59.93$/bbl
- Novorossiysk port resumed oil loadings on Sunday after a two-day suspension, according to Reuters sources and LSEG data.
- US congressman Linsey Graham said on X that Trump has given his blessing to a proposed bill which would slap tariffs of up to 500% on buyers of Russian oil.
- Ukraine claimed a new strike on the Novokuybyshevsk refinery in Russia’s Samara region on Nov. 16 as well as the Ryazan refinery on Nov. 15, damaging two primary processing units.
- The price of Russian Urals crude dropped to as low as $36.61/bbl on Thursday, the lowest since March 2023, ahead of US sanctions Nov. 21.
- Kazakhstan's government is not holding talks with Russia’s Lukoil regarding the purchase of the company's assets in Kazakhstan: Energy Minister
- Iraq’s government is discussing seeking a six-month sanctions waiver from the US Treasury for Lukoil.
- Almost two thirds of analysts and brokers surveyed by Bloomberg do not expect OPEC+ to cut output next year.
- Unsold cargoes in the Middle East at the start of November from the prior trading cycle found buyers in Asia eventually: Bloomberg.
- UBS expects Brent prices to remain within a $60-$70/bbl trading range, with a year-end target of $62/bbl, according to a note cited by Reuters.
- For 2026, Brent and WTI are seen averaging $56/b and $52/b respectively, compared to the current forward curves of $63/b and $60/b: Goldman Sachs
- Canada’s oil sands sector is undergoing a marked revival after years of lagging behind US shale, Bloomberg said.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
