OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Set for Losses

Crude is heading for US close trading lower amid a stronger US dollar due to the firmer-than-expected U.S. economic data. An easing geopolitical risk premium adds further pressure.

• WTI JUN 24 down 0.7% at 82.08$/bbl
• Geopolitical tensions are adding a risk premium of around $3/b to crude prices, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, down from around $12/b in October
• OPEC oil output has fallen 26.49m b/d in April, down 0.1m b/d from March, according to a Reuters survey.
• OPEC+ overproducers Iraq and Kazakhstan have now both submitted plans on how to deliver pledged production cuts.
• Crude oil inventories are seen to have fallen 1.5m bbl in the week ending Apr. 26, according to a WSJ survey.
• Mexico’s Pemex has cut its crude exports to the lowest level on record as the government looks to redirect crude to its domestic refineries.
• Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro said the oil industry recovery and growth is guaranteed despite the reinstatement of US sanctions.
• Venezuela’s oil exports lost momentum in April, ending a three month rise as it braces for the reimposition of US sanctions, Bloomberg said.
• Seaborne exports of Russia crude fell by 120kbpd in the week to April 28.
• Nigeria has reduced its OSP for Bonny Light crude to Dated +$2.34/bbl - the lowest since February and lowered from +$3.28/bbl in April.
• Libya’s crude and condensate exports rose in April to its highest level since October 2022.
• Brent crude futures are forecast at $84/bbl by the end of the year, according to Goldman Sachs, assuming no further Middle East or Russia supply disruption from conflicts.