OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Climbs
Crude markets are trading higher ahead of the US holiday tomorrow, boosted by an unexpected US stock build. Despite some alleviation of concern, the market will be keeping an eye on potential supply risks due to Atlantic hurricanes.
- WTI AUG 24 up 1.1% at 83.68$/bbl
- The near-term crude options skews have turned slightly more bearish again after briefly touching into positive territory earlier this week.
- EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Jun 28: Crude stocks -12,157 vs Exp -411, Crude production 0, SPR stocks +398, Cushing stocks +345
- ARA crude storage fell 759k bbls or 1.4% in the week ended June 28 to 54.1mn bbls according to Genscape figures.
- The Biden administration remains open to dialogue with the Venezuelan government according to U.S. officials.
- Kazakhstan was still exceeding its OPEC+ quota in June with oil and gas condensate production up 4% m/m on a daily basis to 7.24m metric tons, according to Reuters sources.
- Hurricane impacts for the U.S. are potentially more bearish for oil markets nowadays because they risk refinery shut ins according to RBC’s Head of Commodity Research Helima Croft in a CNBC interview.
- Ratcheting tensions between Israel and Lebanon risk escalating the Middle East conflict by drawing Iran into direct confrontation according to RBC
- Upgrades to the Abu Dhabi Ruwais refining complex have enabled Adnoc to export record volumes of Murban crude this year according to MEES analysis.
- MNI COMMODITY WEEKLY – Beryl Sets Tone for Hyperactive Hurricane Season: https://enews.marketnews.com/ct/x/pjJscVCOlr0I6a5lJkt2HQ~k1zZ8KXr-kA8x6mXXJf1ptIPjO1OcQ
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US: Republicans Slightly Favoured To Retain House Of Reps According To New Model
Republicans have a 56% chance of retaining House, - reflecting a “dead heat for the chamber” according to a new model launched by Split Ticket.
- Split Ticket notes: “The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while the remaining 22 seats were tossups. In this iteration, however, both parties are favored in 211 seats, with 13 tossups.”
- Split Ticket adds: “Broadly, this change is driven by two main factors. The biggest one is that this is a significantly more Republican environment…” and secondly, “this is our first update implementing a numerical model to determine quantitative estimates of the most probable outcomes…”
Figure 1: 2024 House Ratings
Source: Split TicketEURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8602 1.0% High May 9 and 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 0.8553 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8541 High May 31
- PRICE: 0.8515 @ 17:45 BST Jun 3
- SUP 1: 0.8484 Low May 29
- SUP 2: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
- SUP 3: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023
- SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
EURGBP is in consolidation mode and remains above last week’s low of 0.8484 (May 29). Conditions are unchanged and a bear trend is still in play. Key supports have recently been pierced; the 0.8500 pivot level, and an important support zone between 0.8498, the Feb 14 low, and 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low. A clear breach of these price points would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.8541, Friday’s high.
PIPELINE: $2.5B National Australia Bank (NAB) 3Pt Debt Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 6/3 $2.5B #National Australia Bank (NAB) $900M 3Y +47, $850M 3Y SOFR+62, $750M 10Y +78
- 6/3 $1.5B #Royalty Pharma $500M 5Y +100, $500M 10Y +127, $500M 30Y +152
- 6/3 $1.3B #Burlington Northern Sante Fe 30Y +98
- 6/3 $800M #Hyatt $450M 5Y +95, $350M 10Y +125
- 6/3 $800M #Baltimore Gas WNG $400M 10Y +93, $400M 30Y +110
- 6/3 $750M #Regions Financial 6NC5 +130
- 6/3 $600M #GATX $200M 10Y +130, $400M 30Y +150
- 6/3 $600M #Southwestern Public Service 30Y +150
- 6/3 $550M #NY Life 5Y +62.5 (SOFR leg dropped)
- 6/3 $500M #BGC Group Inc 5Y +220
- 6/3 $500M #Metlife 10Y +95
- 6/3 $Benchmark Nomura 5Y SOFR+39a
- 6/3 $Benchmark Brighthouse 2027 tap +100, 5Y +125
