JAPAN DATA: Offshore Investors Buy Most Japan Bonds Since April 2025
The stand out in the Japan weekly flow update (to the week ending Jan 30, last Friday), was the surge in offshore buying of local bonds. The
+¥2trln in in net buying was the strongest weekly inflow since mid April last year. Since the start of the year we have seen net buying each week by offshore investors, bringing cumulative inflows to just over ¥5.2trln for this period. Offshore investors may be attracted to the yield pick up in JGBs, and at this stage are not put off by increased volatility and concerns around the fiscal outlook. Diversification flows could also be playing a role. Near term focus for JGBs rests with today's 30yr auction, then the weekend election, where opinion polls are in favour of PM Takaichi's LDP party.
- Offshore investors also continued to buy local stocks. Like on the bond side, we have seen inflows in each week so far in 2026. Japan stock indices sit just off recent highs.
- In terms of Japan outbound flows, we saw local investors pick up the pace in terms of outflows to overseas bonds and equities. Since the start of the year, the flow to overseas bonds has been modestly positive to both of these segments.
Table 1: Japan Weekly Offshore Investment Flows
| Billion Yen | Week ending Jan 30 | Prior Week |
| Foreign Buying Japan Stocks | 494.6 | 329.5 |
| Foreign Buying Japan Bonds | 2081.1 | 377.9 |
| Japan Buying Foreign Bonds | 713.7 | 190.4 |
| Japan Buying Foreign Stocks | 454.6 | -156 |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
LNG: Mild Winter Outlook Drives Gas Prices Lower
While much of Europe has started the week with freezing temperatures and snow, gas prices fell 5.0% to EUR 27.55 on Monday as the west of the region is forecast to shift milder next week and deliveries are expected at the turn of the month as signalled by Bloomberg ship tracking data. European gas is also being impacted by other lower energy prices with crude trending lower and US Henry Hub down 21% since the end of November.
- Europe is a major importer of US LNG and lower US prices are likely to feed through to European consumers.
- Storage in Europe is now below 60% at 59.8% well below the seasonal average of 73% with this week’s cold snap likely to drive further drawdowns making the arrival of supplies in coming weeks important.
- US gas was also lower falling 3.5% to $3.490 but off the intraday low at $3.355. The shift lower has been driven by forecasts for milder weather in the second week of January. Gas consumption is trending lower as heating demand drops.
- Bloomberg reports that the 14-day RSI is at 35.5 close to 30 which signals overbought.
MNI: UK DEC BRC SHOP PRICES +0.0% M/M, +0.7% Y/Y
- MNI: UK DEC BRC SHOP PRICES +0.0% M/M, +0.7% Y/Y
JGB TECHS: (H6) Shallow Bounce Off Lows
- RES 3: 140.08 - High Jun 13
- RES 2: 139.05 - High Aug 4
- RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8 and key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 132.11 @ 16:55 GMT Jan 5
- SUP 1: 132.03 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 2: 131.87 - Low Jan 5
- SUP 3: 131.22 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Prices traded to new pullback and cycle lows again Monday, weighed by building expectations of a BoJ rate hike cycle and a breach of support in futures prices. This affirms the firm downtrend that’s dominated prices since mid-September, and prices will need to challenge resistance before signaling any broader reversal.
