US DATA: Oct Revelio Nonfarm Payrolls Drop For First Time Since May (1/2)
Nov-06 15:58
Revelio Labs' estimate of October nonfarm payrolls growth came in at -9.1k vs +33.0k prior (rev from +60.1k) and August's actual figure reported by the BLS of +22k (Revelio estimates Aug at +14.5k). That is the first negative M/M reading for the Revelio series since May.
- While Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for October (not to mention September's) is postponed indefinitely, Revelio comes alongside other "alternative" data this week in suggesting a further deterioration in labor market conditions in October, or at best, mixed (to name a few: high Challenger Job Cut announcements, Chicago Fed unemployment rate uptick; continued fall in Indeed.com job vacancies; ADP private payrolls relatively more solid).
- Before going any further, a note on Revelio's methodology: they estimate monthly changes in unemployment by looking at professional profiles sourced from professional networking websites eg LinkedIn: "RPLS provides a set of employment statistics derived from over 100 million professional profiles sourced from professional networking websites. After deduplication, adjustments for reporting lags, and reweighing to ensure that the data resembles the national distribution of the workforce, these data yield timely and detailed measures of employment dynamics."
- They claim a correlation coefficient of 0.74 with monthly changes in the BLS's establishment survey payrolls and overall has been good at capturing the overall trends in NFPs - see chart pack below.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EQUITIES: Stocks Sink Through London Close, Small Cap Underperforms
Oct-07 15:55
Equity futures slip to new pullback lows despite the strong start to the session. E-mini S&P fades through yesterday's and Friday's lows with very little difficulty - leaving 6741.50 as the next intraday level.
- Consumer discretionary names are leading losses here, with notable losses for Ford, Tesla and General Motors. Tech sector also performs poorly, aiding the NASDAQ's underperformance relative to the S&P and DJIA.
- Notably, the Russell 2000 is weaker relative to the S&P 500. Lower by over 25 points, the index is now 1.75% off the alltime high posted yesterday. Some position-squaring a potential driver here, with little evidence of programmatic sales on the downtick.
- No specific headline driver or data release to pressure equity sentiment here, but comments from House Dem Leader Jeffries suggested there remains a very large gap between lawmakers on resolving the government shutdown - he noted a proposal to extend ACA credits for one year as "laughable" and unacceptable.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Oct-07 15:51
- EUR/USD: Oct10 $1.1600(E1.3bln), $1.1650(E1.7bln), $1.1700(E1.6bln), $1.1740-50(E2.5bln), $1.1780-00(E2.8bln); Oct13 $1.1700-15(E1.4bln)
- USD/JPY: Oct09 Y150.00-15($2.0bln)
ITALY T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer on Friday
Oct-07 15:42
On Friday, Italy will look to sell E9bln of the new 12-month Oct 14, 2026 BOT
