BONDS: NZGBS: Modestly Richer Despite US Tsys Finishing Modestly Cheaper
Jun-03 22:58
In local morning trade, NZGBs are 2bps richer despite US tsys finishing ~2bps cheaper across benchmarks. The NZ-US 10-year yield differential is -4bps at +13bps.
- US tsys finished well off early session bests after higher-than-expected JOLTS job openings and an up-revision to prior openings.
- The JOLTS report for April was, on balance, one of relative stability in another look at early reaction to Trump administration policies. Job openings surprisingly increased (7391k (sa, cons 7100k) in April after a marginal upward revision of 7200k (initial 7192k) in March), while the hire rate pushed to its highest since September. However, the quit rate pushed back lower again after what to us was a surprising uptick back in March.
- S&P e-minis were just off May 29 highs after the White House announced that President Trump will sign 50% steel and aluminium import tariffs on Wednesday.
- Swap rates are 2-3bps lower.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. 6bps of easing is priced for July, with a cumulative 30bps by November 2025.
- Today, the local calendar will be empty.
- On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$200mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.50% May-35 bond and NZ$50mn of the 5.00% May-54 bond.
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AUSTRALIA: Little To Stand Out This Week, Household Spending Tuesday
May-04 22:53
There are number of monthly data releases this week but nothing in particular that stands out. The closest to a highlight will be Tuesday’s March household spending data, which is set to replace retail sales in the middle of the year.
- Bloomberg consensus expects that household spending will rise 0.2% m/m & 3.9% y/y in March after rising 0.2% m/m & 3.3% y/y. March retail sales rose 0.3% m/m but flat Q1 volumes disappointed.
- The Melbourne Institute’s April inflation gauge prints on Monday and it has been running close to the trimmed CPI in recent months. It was 2.8% in March.
- ANZ job ads for April are also on Monday. Q1 saw vacancies continuing to moderate but the ratio with unemployment remains above average.
- The final April S&P Global composite and services PMIs print on Monday. The preliminary reading is consistent with positive but moderate growth.
- March building approvals are released on Tuesday and forecast to fall 1.8% m/m after a 0.3% drop the previous month.
- There are no RBA events scheduled for the week. The next meeting is May 20.
ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
May-04 22:48
- Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 182D Bills (PH0000059529)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 91D Bills (PH0000059131)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 9.0Bln 364D Bills (PH0000060386)
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
May-04 22:47
| 1930GMT | 0830HKT | 1030AEDT | Vietnam S&P Global PMI Mfg APR |
| 2300GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Indonesia GDP QoQ |
| 2300GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Indonesia GDP YoY |
| 0000GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | Singapore Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY MAR |
| 0000GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | Singapore Retail Sales YoY MAR |
| 1930GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | Singapore Retail Sales MoM MAR |
