The NZD/USD had a range overnight of 0.5632 - 0.5669, Asia is trading around 0.5655. Risk consolidated its recent gains and the markets saw more breadth, the USD moved lower in response to a weaker ADP jobs report. The NZD reacted higher to the move in the USD and is attempting to put in a short-term low. The NZD does stand out as a vehicle to express a short in but should this bout of improved risk sentiment grow it will be tough for the NZD to ignore it and it could play catch up to the move at some point, if you feel this bounce in risk will fail and move back lower then the NZD remains a great way to express that. I still suspect any decent bounce will again attract sellers though. The first sell area on a pullback would be around 0.5750 and then the more pivotal 0.5850 area. Dips on the day toward 0.5630-40 needs to hold for the retracement to potentially extend.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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The AUD/USD had a range Friday night of 0.6473-0.6566, Asia is trading around 0.6510(+0.55%). Some clarification from China over the weekend on their new rare earth export controls has seen the US walk back its aggressive stance and a more conciliatory tone is being set. I suspect a lot of Friday's moves will see some decent pullbacks on this, but how long it lasts is anybody's guess. The AUD has gapped higher on the open but looking at the way Crypto has bounced on the walk back would suggest this could potentially have more to do. A lot of leverage would have been taken out last week and it's very hard to just regain the conviction it previously had so I suspect the rally will stall at some point as some risk is pared back. For this reason I suspect any bounce back towards 0.6570/0.6600 will be faded again first up if seen.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
| 2230BST | 0530HKT | 0830AEDT | New Zealand Sep Performance Services Index |
| 2245BST | 0545HKT | 0845AEDT | New Zealand Aug Net Migration |
| 0100BST | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | South Korea Oct First 10days Trade |
| China Sep Trade Data |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
After the RBNZ’s outsized 50bp OCR cut on 8 October, the outlook for the 26 November meeting will be highly data dependent. This week September card spending and monthly price data are released and as they round off the quarter should give an indication of how Q3 consumption and inflation developed.