NZDJPY: NZD/JPY - Playing Catch Up, Eyes Pivotal 90.00-90.50 Resistance
The overnight range was 89.14 - 89.64, Asia is currently dealing 89.40, +0.10%.This pair has consolidated its move above 89.00 after the surprise by the RBNZ. It has played catch up to the likes of AUD/JPY but in my mind I suspect it still has more to do. NZD/JPY has stalled just ahead of some tough resistance around 90.00-90.50 but a sustained break back above these levels could potentially see this pair start to gain momentum to the topside again. Support on the day is seen back toward the 88.70-89.00 area.
- The NZD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 61 Points
Fig 1 : NZD/JPY Weekly Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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CRYPTO: Ethereum - Stops Hit Below $3400-$3500, Leads The Move Lower Down 14%
Ethereum had a range overnight of $3059.43 - $3586.03, Asia is trading around $3275, +1.85%. Ethereum like the rest of Crypto has never recovered from its crash in early October and extended its move lower overnight ending over 14% down on the day and down 22% over 2 days. Ethereum broke the support between $3300-$3500 very easily and it looks like this then triggered stops lower in very thin liquidity. As history reminds us the liquidity is always there when entering the trade but the exit door becomes very small especially in products like Crypto that trade with a very high Vol. With the USD resurgent and the risk backdrop souring dramatically I suspect rallies will continue to be used to pare back longs. The next target is back toward the $2500-$2800 area where I suspect some demand should return first up.
- Milk Road put forward his thesis of the move on X, “Markets didn’t just randomly nuke today. Three things hit at once. The Fed came out hawkish, pushing the dollar higher and sucking oxygen out of risk assets. ETFs saw heavy outflows as institutions de risked, and the Balancer exploit spooked sentiment right as liquidity was thinning. Fear, uncertainty, doubt, in that order. But underneath the chaos, nothing structural has changed. This is a shakeout, not a trend reversal.”
Fig 1: Ethereum spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
US TSY FLOWS: BLOCK: SELL UXYZ5
SELL 3600 of UXYZ5 traded at 115-26, post-time 12:08:04 AEST (DV01 $325,073). The contract is currently trading at 115-28+, +0-10 from closing levels.
US TSY FLOWS: BLOCK SELL TUZ5
SELL 8600 of TUZ5 traded at 104-06 3/4, post-time 12:08:04 AEST (DV01 $325,390). The contract is currently trading at 104-07 1/4, +0-01 7/8 from closing levels.
