POWER: NVE Clears Statnett to Probe Split of NO4 Bidding Zone

• In FX, the trend in EURUSD remains bullish and this week’s rally so far, highlights the end of the recent corrective pullback. The first important support lies at 1.1683, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1804, the Dec 16 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.1848, the Sep 18 high.
• The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and this week’s strong start reinforces current conditions. The pair has traded to a fresh short-term cycle high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend that started early November. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3527, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support is 1.3306, the 50-day EMA.
• The trend structure in USDJPY is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Support to watch lies at 154.40, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

OI data points to net short setting dominating as Tsy futures ticked lower on Monday, with that theme only interrupted by very modest net long cover in FV futures.

• The biggest net positioning swing (in both outright and DV01 terms) came in TU futures.
• Nearly $6mln DV01 of fresh net short exposure was added in that contract over Friday & Monday. 

Today sees long-awaited Q3 GDP data at 0830ET, in “initial” release form that replaces what would have been the second GDP and the preliminary corporate profits estimates (the advance release was cancelled). This will be the first GDP release since the third Q2 report on Sep 25. 

• The extended tracking window of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow points to strong real GDP growth of 3.5% annualized after an average 1.6% in 1H25 (-0.65% in Q1 before 3.84% in Q2). Bloomberg consensus is a little softer at 3.3% annualized.
• Expect continued close attention on private demand, best seen by Powell’s preferred PDFP category, which is currently tracking at ~2.4% annualized to match the 2.4% averaged in 1H25 (1.9% Q1 before 2.9% in Q2).
• Consumption dynamics remain important, seen at a healthy 2.7% annualized by both GDPNow and Bloomberg consensus, but there’s less scope to surprise this time having received the September PCE data on Dec 5.
• Investment will continue to be watched closely, with further strong increases expected for IP products and equipment. It follows a very strong 1H25, including software alone adding 0.6pps in Q2 and 0.4pps in Q1 to quarterly GDP growth and computers & peripheral equipment adding 0.4pps in Q2 and 0.5pp in Q1.
• As for the more volatile GDP components, GDPNow eyes a net export boost of 1.0pps (after a huge +4.8pp in Q2 and -4.7pps in Q1) along with broadly neutral changes in inventories at 0.1pps (after -3.4pp in Q2 and +2.6pp in Q1) in some stabilization after major tariff distortions.
• The “third” Q3 GDP release has been confirmed for Jan 22 whilst there’s no current set date for the Q4 advance originally planned for Jan 29.