FRANCE AUCTION RESULTS: Notable E5.3bln of the 2.75% Feb-29 OAT Sold Today
Top of the E11.5-13.5bln range sold at today’s MT OAT auction, with a notable E5.3bln of the 2.75% Feb-29 OAT sold.
- This isn’t the on-the-run 3-year OAT, but is considered the 3-year benchmark on BBG’s SOVM page. With the AFT choosing not to launch a new long 3-year OAT in this auction, we look for the usual February launch of a new OAT likely maturing September 2029.
- The 2.77x bid-to-cover ratio for the Feb-29 OAT was the strongest since May 2023 (the first re-opening of this line after the April 2023 launch). France only sold more of this bond at a single auction in Jun 2023 (E5.7bln).
- Today’s lowest accepted price of 100.98 was in excess of the 100.926 pre-auction mid. The secondary price of the OAT is hovering around 100.934 at typing.
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COMMODITIES: Fresh Cycle Highs for Gold Reinforce Bullish Conditions
The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A key support and the bear trigger at $56.11, the Oct 17 low, has been breached. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend and opens $53.77, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $58.71, the 50- day EMA. The trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and another fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. The metal has traded through the psychological $4400.0 handle and this opens $4500.0 next, ahead of $4536.0, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $4259.9, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
- WTI Crude up $0.02 or +0.03% at $58.05
- Natural Gas up $0.01 or +0.35% at $3.979
- Gold spot up $39.53 or +0.89% at $4483.5
- Copper up $3.4 or +0.62% at $554.35
- Silver up $0.52 or +0.75% at $69.5745
- Platinum up $50.94 or +2.39% at $2181.47
EQUITIES: Key Resistance for E-Mini S&P Marked at 7014.00, the Oct 30 High
A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The first key support to watch lies at 5685.07, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a potential short-term reversal. This would open 5622.00, the Nov 26 low. For bulls, sights are on key resistance at 5847.00, the Nov 13 high. The price pattern on Dec 18 is a bullish engulfing candle - a reversal signal. The recent pullback in S&P E-Minis appears to have been a correction. A key short-term support has been defined at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement of the recent bull phase between Nov 21 - Dec 11. This would open 6737.71, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 10.48 pts or +0.02% at 50412.87 and the TOPIX ended 18.08 pts higher or +0.53% at 3423.25.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 2.615 pts or +0.07% at 3919.979 and the HANG SENG ended 27.63 pts lower or -0.11% at 25774.14.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 33.24 pts or +0.14% at 24317.1, FTSE 100 higher by 8.02 pts or +0.08% at 9874.03, CAC 40 down 17.21 pts or -0.21% at 8103.91 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.91 pts or -0.03% at 5741.78.
- Dow Jones mini up 25 pts or +0.05% at 48713, S&P 500 mini up 5.25 pts or +0.08% at 6935.5, NASDAQ mini up 26.75 pts or +0.1% at 25719.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
EURUSD 1.04bn at 1.1800 (could act as magnet).
- EURUSD: 1.1745 (358mln), 1.1755 (494mln), 1.1775 (408mln), 1.1800 (1.04bn), 1.1810 (379mln).
- USDJPY: 156.00 (815mln).
- USDCAD: 1.3700 (330mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6700 (367mln)
