EURJPY TECHS: Northbound

• Risk sentiment kicked off the new week with a positive note, weaker crude prices (WTI -4.86 at 93.85, still elevated since the start of the Iran war, but off last week's near $120 high) underpinning stocks through Monday's session.
• Information Technology sector shares led the broad based rally, semiconductor and hardware makers outperforming with Sandisk and Ciena Corp climbing near 8%, while the following hold 4-5% in lte trade: Micron Technology, Seagate Technology, Western Digital, Teradyne, Intel, Super Micro Computer and Microchip Technology.
• Of note, Meta shares held 2.38% higher after announcing a $27B investment in AI computing capacity from Nebius Group over 5 years, Nebius trades over 15.25% in late trade.
• Consumer Staples and Health Care sector shares led declines in the second half, Bio-Techne Corp and Baxter International weighing on the latter.

A new survey from Politico has found that, “Swaths of the public in Canada, Germany, France and the UK have soured on the US, driven by President Donald Trump’s foreign policy decisions.” The survey found that "respondents in those four allied countries believe it is better to depend on China than the US following Trump’s turbulent return to office. That appears to be driven by Trump’s disruption, not by a newfound stability in China..."

• Politico notes, “Respondents in these countries increasingly see China as a more dependable partner than the U.S. and believe the Asian economic colossus is leading on advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence. Critically, Europeans surveyed see it as possible to reduce reliance on the U.S. but harder to reduce reliance on China — suggesting newfound entanglements that could drastically tip the balance of global power away from the West.”

Figure 1: Share of respondents who say it's either better to depend on China or on the US under Donald Trump, split by country

Source: Politico 

• RES 4: 1.3712 High Feb 11    
• RES 3: 1.3662 High Feb 16 
• RES 2: 1.3575 High Feb 26 and a key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 1.3433/72 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 1.3306 @ 16:02 GMT Mar 16
• SUP 1: 1.3219 Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: 1.3212 76.4% retracement of the Nov 4 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3180 Low Dec 2 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.3125 Low Nov 26 ‘25

The bear cycle in GBPUSD remains intact and a fresh cycle low on Friday confirms a continuation of the bear leg. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3472, is intact. A clear break of the average would signal a possible reversal. For bears, sights are on 1.3212 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bear theme and open 1.3010 further out, the Nov 4 / 5 low 2025.