SEK: Nomura Go Short USD/SEK, Target 9.00

Aug-08 15:36

Nomura recommend shorting USD/SEK, targeting a move to 9.00. USDSEK is currently at 9.5690. Initial support is the July 23 low at 9.4761, which shields 9.3792, the June 12 low.

  • “Flash inflation data remained notably above the Riksbank’s forecasts, both CPIF and ex-energy. After a blip in several activity indicators in mid-Q2, economic momentum also appears to be resuming. This all supports our view that the Riksbank’s rate-cutting cycle is likely over, while market pricing points towards a further cut this year”.
  • “More certainty in global trade dynamics relative to recent months and a potential shift in US focus towards Russia-Ukraine should also both be beneficial to SEK”.
  • “USD/SEK has shown a high sensitivity to US rates in recent months and should benefit from more dovish Fed rhetoric or any further signs of weakening US economic momentum”.

Historical bullets

FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.230%(ALLOT 69.56%)

Jul-09 15:32
  • US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.230%(ALLOT 69.56%)
  • US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 34.08% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 5.59% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 60.33% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.03

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: NTT Finance 7Pt on Tap

Jul-09 15:27
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 07/09 $Benchmark NTT Finance Corp: 2Y +105, 3Y +115, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +130, 5Y SOFR, 7Y +140, 10Y +150
  • 07/09 $Benchmark Gulfstream Natural GasSystem 10Y +155a
  • 07/09 $Benchmark Romania +5Y +225, +10Y +270a
  • 07/09 $Benchmark Viper Energy 5Y +135, 10Y +170a
  • 07/09 $Benchmark Western-Southern 3Y +90a
  • $7.4B Priced Tuesday

FED: FOMC June Minutes Preview And Instant Answers

Jul-09 15:22

The minutes of the June 17-18 FOMC meeting (released at 2pm ET) should underline the Committee's patience in making its next rate move amid heightened tariff-related economic uncertainty - our preview to the Minutes  full PDF is here.

Also a reminder, we have a few Instant Answers questions - answers will be published immediately upon the release of the Minutes:

  • Did any participant mention a potential scenario where rates would need to rise from current levels?
  • Did staff or participants discuss the idea of lowering the ON RRP rate relative to the fed funds rate?
  • Did any participant mention changing the IORB rate independently of changes to the fed funds rate?