BUNDS: No Lasting Reaction To CPI
The initial downtick in Bunds, driven by the 0.1ppt upside “surprise” in the German CPI data, quickly fades, with the national readings in line with indications provided by the regional releases seen earlier in the day.
- Contract back to pre-release levels of ~131.65 after basing at 131.58, yields 2-3bp lower on the day, light flattening bias on the curve.
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EGBS: /STIR: German CPI Meets MNI Tracking, Markets Little Changed
The German national CPI prints were in line with our tracking estimates, as mentioned in recent bullets, explaining the lack of post-data movement in markets.
- Bund and Euribor futures essentially unchanged over the data. The former prints ~129.15, while Euribor futures are 2.0-5.5bp higher vs. settlement, holding onto some of the tariff worry-driven gains seen earlier today.
- ECB-dated OIS equally unmoved after pulling back from dovish session extremes as core global FI faded from session highs.
- ~85% odds of a cut showing for next month’s meeting, with ~63bp of easing priced through year-end. ’25 meeting contracts 0.5-3.0bp more dovish on the day.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Apr-25 | 2.204 | -21.3 |
Jun-25 | 2.028 | -38.9 |
Jul-25 | 1.958 | -45.9 |
Sep-25 | 1.858 | -55.9 |
Oct-25 | 1.828 | -58.9 |
Dec-25 | 1.785 | -63.2 |
GERMAN DATA: Rounded HICP a tenth below consensus; CPI in line with tracking est
- German HICP came in a tenth below consensus at 2.3%Y/Y (versus consensus of 2.4%Y/Y, prior 2.6%) with the M/M print at 0.4% (0.4% consensus although 0.5% was the modal expectation and analysts were split between 0.3-0.5%).
- The national CPI came in at 2.2%Y/Y (MNI tracking 2.2-2.3%, consensus 2.2%, prior 2.3%), M/M at 0.3% (in line with MNI tracking of 0.3-0.4% and consensus of 0.3%).
SPAIN AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer this week
Tesoro Publico has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E5.5-6.5bln of the following Bono/Oblis at its auction this Thursday, April 3:
- the 2.40% May-28 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O59)
- the 3.10% Jul-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N43)
- the 3.90% Jul-39 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L60)
Tesoro Publico has additionally announced it will be looking to sell E0.25-0.75bln of the 1.00% Nov-30 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES00000127C8) at that auction.
