BUNDS: No Lasting Reaction To CPI

The German national CPI prints were in line with our tracking estimates, as mentioned in recent bullets, explaining the lack of post-data movement in markets.

• Bund and Euribor futures essentially unchanged over the data. The former prints ~129.15, while Euribor futures are 2.0-5.5bp higher vs. settlement, holding onto some of the tariff worry-driven gains seen earlier today.
• ECB-dated OIS equally unmoved after pulling back from dovish session extremes as core global FI faded from session highs.
• ~85% odds of a cut showing for next month’s meeting, with ~63bp of easing priced through year-end. ’25 meeting contracts 0.5-3.0bp more dovish on the day.

• German HICP came in a tenth below consensus at 2.3%Y/Y (versus consensus of 2.4%Y/Y, prior 2.6%) with the M/M print at 0.4% (0.4% consensus although 0.5% was the modal expectation and analysts were split between 0.3-0.5%).
• The national CPI came in at 2.2%Y/Y (MNI tracking 2.2-2.3%, consensus 2.2%, prior 2.3%), M/M at 0.3% (in line with MNI tracking of 0.3-0.4% and consensus of 0.3%).

Tesoro Publico has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E5.5-6.5bln of the following Bono/Oblis at its auction this Thursday, April 3:

• the 2.40% May-28 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O59)
• the 3.10% Jul-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N43)
• the 3.90% Jul-39 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L60)

Tesoro Publico has additionally announced it will be looking to sell E0.25-0.75bln of the 1.00% Nov-30 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES00000127C8) at that auction.