EU CREDIT HEADLINE: Nexi Unit Sale Stalls

Nothing to really alter the picture in markets in the comments that follow the meeting between Japanese PM Takaichi and BoJ Governor Ueda.

• Ueda noted that he told Takaichi that the Bank is operating a process of gradually adjusting its monetary easing, which the PM “seemed to acknowledge”.
• The Governor stressed the focus on a smooth landing towards the Bank’s inflation target.
• Ueda also noted that the two discussed FX but wouldn’t comment on specifics, instead reaffirming that it is desirable for FX to move in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals.
• Takaichi underscored her focus on lowering the debt/GDP ratio.
• Follow up comments came from Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara, who noted that monetary policy isn’t aimed at guiding FX levels and stressed that the government will continue to work closely with the BoJ.
• USD/JPY trades either side of 155.00 as the headlines cross, initial support and resistance of noted located at 153.49 & 155.53, with bulls remaining in technical control.
• A reminder that comments from Finance Minister Katayama, pointing to deep concern & alarm re: recent FX moves provided some support for the JPY in Tokyo hours, but failed to signal imminent intervention. Meanwhile, JPY hasn’t really been able to benefit from the risk-off tone seen thus far.
• JGB futures +4 at 135.75, off post-Tokyo highs of 135.81, in a similarly tight range over the latest round of comments.

• RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $59.38 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 18 
• SUP 1: $55.96 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

A sell-off in WTI futures on Nov 12 strengthens a bearish theme. A continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.96, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Note that it is still possible a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. Resistance to watch is $62.59, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction 
• RES 1: $4106.7/4245.2 - High Nov 17 / 13                    
• PRICE: $4003.3 @ 07:32 GMT Nov 18 
• SUP 1: $3932.1 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29 

The downleg in Gold between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. With the metal retracing from last week’s high, the key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3932.1. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4245.23, the Nov 13 high.