IRAN: Netanyahu on X: As Long As I Am PM, Iran Will Not Have Nuclear Weapons
Jun-12 11:34
Benjamin Netanyahu on X @netanyahu "As long as I am the Prime Minister of Israel, Iran will not hav...
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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: PPI, Fed Speakers, 30Y Bond Sale
May-13 11:30
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 05/13 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications reported 1.7% from -4.4% prior
- 05/13 0830 PPI Final Demand MoM Apr (0.5%, 0.5%), YoY (4.0%, 4.8%)
- 05/13 0830 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Apr (0.1%, 0.3%), YoY (3.8%, 4.3%)
- 05/13 1130 US Tsy $69B 17W bill auction
- 05/13 1130 Boston Fed Collins moderated discussion on US economy
- 05/13 1300 US Tsy $25B 30Y Bond auction (912810UU0)
- 05/13 1315 MN Fed Kashkari moderated discussion
- 05/13 1900 Dallas Fed Logan moderated discussion
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Gilts Still Present
May-13 11:24
- In the FI space, the trend in Bund futures is bearish and this week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. MA studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Resistance to watch is 125.84, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger correction and open 126.64, the Apr 8 high and key resistance. For bears, key support lies at 124.25, the Mar 27 low. A breach of it would resume the downtrend.
- A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest recovery has proved to be a correction. Tuesday’s move lower resulted in a breach of 85.91, the Mar 23 low. A clear break of this support would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend, and open 85.21, a 2.618 projection of the Feb 27 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing. On the upside, key short-term resistance to watch is 88.32 the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this EMA would be a bullish development. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 87.31.
FOREX: GBPAUD Clean Break of March Lows, Focus Turns to 1.8589
May-13 11:22
- GBPAUD has had a clean break of the March lows today as the pessimistic political backdrop in the UK and the bullish Aussie fundamentals emphasise the latest divergence. Despite the tentative price action for the major FX pairs, the cross has been moving steadily lower throughout the European morning, now 60 pips through the level as we approach the NY crossover.
- The December 2023 lows represent the next notable objective for GBPAUD, coming in at 1.8589. A break below here would bolster bearish conditions, signalling scope for a deeper move towards 1.8399 (April 2023 low) and 1.8267, the 76.4% retracement of the 2023-2025 range.
- A reminder that Westpac retain a M-T bearish strategic bias on GBPAUD, as fundamentally, the backdrop remains discouraging for the cross. Westpac target 1.8520 and 1.8180 over 1m and 3m respectively.
- The first estimate of UK Q1 GDP is due tomorrow, while less monpol-relevant, will be watched after February's monthly data showed a strong upside surprise, indicating that the economy was on a stronger-than-expected footing pre-Iran conflict. In Australia, consumer inflation expectation figures are due Thursday, while the RBA minutes of the May policy meeting and April employment data are scheduled next week.
