ASIA STOCKS: Net Inflows For Tech Pays Remain Positive Past Week
Net equity inflow trends for the past 5 trading days have been mixed for EM Asia markets, see the table below. South Korea and Taiwan remain firmly positive at around the +$1.5bn mark. We did see some wobbles through Thursday trade, as Oracle's results cast a fresh shadow over the chip/AI related demand outlook. Still, broader global equity market trends are mostly positive for aggregate indices as we approach year end. Both the Kospi and Taiex have struggled to make fresh highs, but dips remain supported. As we approach year end, both markets remain in a net outflow posture for 2025 to date, and it would take quite strong inflows over the coming weeks to reverse this trend.
- In India, uncertainty continues to prevail over the US-India trade deal. The Chief Economic Advisor for India stating yesterday that most the key issues are now bedded down and that he would be surprised if an agreement wasn't in place by March next year. US comments have been promising around gaining access to Indian agricultural markets (although markets await details and on US tariff relief for India as part of broader trade agreement). Indian equities have mostly tracked lower since the start of the month.
- In South East Asia, Indonesia remains the most positive story although year to date it still maintains a net outflow stance.
- In Thailand focus will be on the election, to be held in the next 45-60 days. The local stock markets has struggled and is back close to Nov lows.
Table 1: Asian Markets Net Equity Flows
| Yesterday | Past 5 Trading Days | 2025 To Date | |
| South Korea (USDmn) | 283 | 1569 | -4213 |
| Taiwan (USDmn) | -417 | 1540 | -4498 |
| India (USDmn)* | -228 | -332 | -17560 |
| Indonesia (USDmn) | 82 | 91 | -1577 |
| Thailand (USDmn) | -28 | 33 | -3256 |
| Malaysia (USDmn) | -19 | -168 | -4785 |
| Philippines (USDmn) | -13 | -81 | -827 |
| Total (USDmn) | -341 | 2652 | -36715 |
| * Data Up To Dec 10 |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
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JPY: CNH/JPY - Dips Remain Supported, Testing 21.70 Resistance
The overnight range was 21.5902 - 21.6816, Asia is currently trading around 21.6600. The pair continues to find demand on dips and while the 21.30-21.40 support area holds I suspect this will carry on. With risk building on its recent gains and Japanese Policy keeping the JPY under pressure it is looking to test the 21.70/75 resistance area. A break above here would turn the focus back toward the highs of 2024 seen around the 22.20 area.
Fig 1 : CNH/JPY Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
EURJPY: EUR/JPY - Back Testing The Years Highs, 180 Next ?
The overnight range was 178.12 - 178.74, Asia is trading around 178.65. The pair is back to testing the year's highs again as dips remain very well supported as sentiment in risk has surged and Japanese Policy keeps the JPY under pressure. The move is looking a little overdone as it flirts with levels not seen since the early 1990s but I suspect dips will continue to be supported in the short-term though as the trend remains your friend. The first support is back toward 1.7600 which held last week and then the more important 174.00-175.00 area.
Fig 1 : EUR/JPY Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUSTRALIA: Steady October Labour Market Forecast, Watch Underemployment Too
After the unemployment rate rose 0.2pp to 4.5% in September, the October jobs release will be monitored closely to see if there is some stabilisation as the data can be volatile on a monthly basis. Bloomberg consensus expects it to fall 0.1pp to 4.4% with new jobs up 20k and the participation rate stable at 67%. RBA Governor Bullock has advised to look at the data on a 3-month average basis.
- The unemployment rate is widely expected to normalise somewhat at 4.4% but there are a few economists who expect it to stay at 4.5% or fall back to 4.3%. All of the big four local banks are forecasting a 0.1pp decline to 4.4%. The Q3 average was 4.3%.
- Employment projections are between 10k and 45k. CBA and NAB are in line with consensus at 20k after September’s 14.9k increase. ANZ and Westpac are not as optimistic expecting a 15k rise. Job gains averaged 12.3k in Q3.
- The break down between full-time (FT) and part-time (PT) employment and hours will also be important as a shift to more part-timers signals less confidence in the outlook by employers. FT jobs averaged 10.2k in Q3 and PT 2.1k.
- RBA Governor Bullock has noted numerous times that the central bank looks beyond the headline labour market figures. In terms of Thursday’s release, the underemployment and youth unemployment rates will also be important. They averaged 5.8% (Q2 6.0%) and 10.0% (Q2 9.6%) in Q3 respectively. Hours worked are another focus point.
