AMERICAS OIL: Net Bullish Nymex WTI Crude Oil Bets Boosted to 6-Month High

The US BEA has announced a few rescheduled key reports in the coming weeks:

• There will be a combined October and November PCE report out on January 22, at 10am ET - in time for the Fed's meeting the following week. These had been due out on Nov 26 / Dec 19, respectively.
• It's unclear how the October release will be compiled given a lack of CPI data for the month.
• Additionally the BEA rescheduled the advance estimate of Q4 GDP for Feb 20, alongside the December PCE report. These releases had originally been due out on Jan 29.
• Indeed the January PCE report and second Q4 GDP estimate had originally been scheduled for Feb 26 - but at least the BEA is evidently catching up to the shutdown-related backlog.
• Below is a list of major releases 

• One new shock seen in the December payrolls report compared to November could be the weather, with colder than usual temperatures generally observed around the payrolls reference period in December as well in the week leading up to it.
• December tends to see less weather disruption than January or February according to the specific question in the household survey.
• While it’s hard to say whether it prevented people from reaching their workplaces, it could have seen some downward pressure on industries such as construction after its unusually large positive contribution of 28k new jobs in November (second largest behind the ever-large gains for health care & social assistance) or those reliant on travel. JPMorgan for example estimate construction payrolls to have increased 5k.
• Explicit estimates for the potential weather impact on payrolls are light but Goldman Sachs highlight it as a downside risk this month. 

Whatever the outcome, it's unlikely to greatly sway expectations that the BoC's easing cycle is at an end and that the next move is more likely to be a hike than a cut: markets do not fully price any moves through 2026 but there are about 15bp of hikes priced by December. That said, rate hike expectations have moderated slightly since the December press conference, in line with a broader global move and largely soft non-employment Canadian economic data.

• Importantly, the BoC appears to have adopted the stance that monthly labour market data is too volatile to take much signal, and is not in any hurry to adjust policy.
• Gov Macklem at the December press conference downplayed the freshly-hot employment gains in September through November, highlighting instead expectations that growth is likely to slow in the context of a major structural adjustment: "You're seeing overall employment has moved up. So that is encouraging. There is some resilience to the economy. What I would say, though, is looking forward, it hasn't fundamentally changed our view. The Canadian economy is going through a difficult structural adjustment that is going to take some time. When you talk to companies, they're being very cautious about their investment plans. They're cautious about their hiring plans. So yes, we are pleased to see this resilience. But going forward, we continue to expect fairly modest growth."
• There will be continued scrutiny by the BoC over the reliability and durability of the employment data, with Macklem and Governing Council appearing to take a patient approach while assessing incoming data "in a symmetric way. If our outlook changes materially in either direction, either because there's a big shock, or because there's an accumulation of evidence, one way or the other, we're prepared to respond."
• A singular shock figure in December jobs shouldn't move the needle too much however, with almost no chance seen of a January rate move. The next major items on the near-term agenda are CPI and the BOC's quarterly business and consumer surveys - both released on January 19.