POLAND: NBP Announces Rate Decision, Tusk Expected To Be Voted PM Next Tuesday
Dec-06 08:05
- The National Bank of Poland (NBP) will announce its monetary policy decision later today. There is no fixed time for the announcement - the central bank used to give an early notice approximately 15 minutes before, but this was not the case on the prior two occasions, albeit Governor Glapinski promised to look into it. The NBP is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged amid heightened uncertainty around fiscal and regulatory policy outlook (click here to see our preview). The Governor will hold his usual press conference to explain the decision and discuss the state of the economy tomorrow at 14:00GMT/15:00CET.
- The agenda for next week's parliamentary meetings has been published on the Sejm's website, providing a tentative timeline for the election of the new government. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki will deliver his policy speech on Monday at 10:00GMT/11:00CET, which will be followed by a debate and a vote of confidence at 14:00GMT/15:00CET. The agenda assumes that Morawiecki's government will be voted down and a new candidate will be appointed by parliament later on Monday. The new candidate (presumably Donald Tusk) will deliver a policy speech on Tuesday at 08:00GMT/09:00CET before a vote of confidence at 14:00GMT/15:00CET.
- S&P Global said that Poland's credit rating would benefit from an inflow of suspended EU funds, with efforts to secure access to the money set to be "closely observed". On the other hand, any violation of the central bank's independence "would be something that we could also take into account".
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GILTS: Opening calls
Nov-06 07:58
Gilt opening calls, range 95.03/95.13.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
Nov-06 07:58
- RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
- RES 3: 0.8582 50.0% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6562 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
- PRICE: 0.6507 @ 07:56 GMT Nov 6
- SUP 1: 0.6378 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6315/0.6270 Low Oct 31 / 26 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support
AUDUSD traded sharply higher Friday, as the current corrective cycle extends. The pair has cleared the 50-day EMA and sights are on the key resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and expose 0.6582, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6378, the 20-day EMA. A break would be viewed as a bearish development.
STIR: SFRZ4/Z5 Flattener Flow
Nov-06 07:56
SFRZ4/Z5 4K given at -51.5
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