NATGAS: Natural Gas Prices Surge on Cooler Weather Outlooks
U.S. gas prices surged on Monday supported by colder weather outlooks and LNG demand as further capacity ramps up but has retraced from earlier high’s.
- US Natgas FEB 25 up 15.5% at 3.91$/mmbtu
- The National Weather Service expects a higher chance of colder-than-normal weather across the US East and Midwest in its latest 8-14 day outlook compared to a prior expectation of a mild fall.
- LSEG estimated 499 heating degree days over the next two weeks, compared with 399 estimated on Friday.
- It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, jumping to 148.4 bcfd this week from 120.2 bcfd last week.
- The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.8 bcfd so far in December from 13.6 bcfd in November. Plaquemines LNG feedgas is today at 0.51bcf/d but reached a high of 0.63bcf/d on Dec. 25.
- Lower 48 natural gas demand is near normal at 85.6bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- US domestic natural gas production is estimated up at 106.5bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 105.2bcf/d so far in December.
- LNG was produced for the first time from the first train of Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 liquefaction project. Substantial completion of Train 1 is expected to be achieved at the end of Q1 2025, more than six months ahead of the guaranteed completion date.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z4) Bounce Mode
- RES 3: 96.380 - High Mar 21 2023
- RES 2: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 1: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- PRICE: 96.090 @ 15:41 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 95.760 - Low Nov 13
- SUP 2: 95.750 - Low 27 Nov ‘23
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Having hit a fresh pullback low at 95.760 across the global rates sell-off in recent weeks, the market found bottom and has staged a shallow bounce above the 96.00 handle. Nonetheless, recent weakness confirms the downside bias, with support undercutting at 95.750 below ahead of major support of 95.480. For any corrective recovery to take hold, markets need to retake the 96.00 handle on a closing basis.
USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4287 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4078/4178 High Nov 27 / 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4005 @ 16:09 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 1.3965/28 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3858 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and Tuesday’s fresh cycle reinforced this theme. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. For now, the latest pullback appears corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6604/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6534/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
- PRICE: 0.6512 @ 16:03 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 0.6434 Low Nov 26
- SUP 3: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The fresh cycle low on Tuesday marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. The pair has recovered from its recent lows - a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6534, the 20-day EMA.
