BRENT TECHS: (N6) Resumes Its Primary Uptrend

• RES 4: $123.68 - High Jun 14 ‘22 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: $113.41 - High Mar 9 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: $110.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $106.86 - Intraday high       
• PRICE: $102.65 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: $89.64/84.37 - 20-day EMA / Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: $78.60 - 50-day  EMA
• SUP 3: $69.00 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 4: $63.57 - Low Feb 26   

A bull wave in WTI futures remains intact and the sharp pullback on Mar 23 has proved to be corrective. A bullish start to this week’s session reinforces the bull theme. A key support zone to monitor is the area between $89.64 - $78.60, the 20- and 50-day EMA values. A clear break of this support zone is required to signal a possible trend reversal. On the upside, sights are on $113.41, the Mar 9 high and bull trigger.

• RES 4: $5044.6 - High Mar 17
• RES 3: $4806.6 - 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: $4741.6 - 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: $4655.7 - Low Feb 6                        
• PRICE: $4559.3 @ 07:24 GMT Mar 31 
• SUP 1: $4306.4/4099.2 - Low Mar 24 / 23
• SUP 2: $4000.0 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $3945.2 - 1.236 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - Mar 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $3771.1 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - Mar 2 price swing

Gold is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. Short-term trend signals are bearish and the recovery from the Mar 23 low is considered corrective. Note that the downtrend is in oversold territory and a stronger corrective bounce would allow this condition to unwind. Key near-term resistance is at $4806.6, the 50-day EMA. For bears, a resumption of the bear leg would open $3945.2, a Fibonacci projection.

BRC shop price inflation edged up 0.1ppt in March to 1.2% Y/Y (1.1% Feb, 1.5% Jan) on base effects, as prices fell 0.1% M/M (after 0.0% Feb, +0.4% Jan). Movements in core goods prices will see less focus than usual in CPI data given the large fuel price increases that will be incorporated into the print and any additional transportation costs that feed into core goods prices will not be evident in the data yet. Still, the press release comments that conflict-driven cost pressures are starting to feed into supply chains.

• Food inflation slowed a touch to 3.4% Y/Y (3.5% Feb, 3.9% Jan), again driven by ambient food as opposed to fresh food. Month-on-month, food prices fell 0.1% M/M (after 0.0% Feb, +1.1% Jan).
• Within food, ambient food inflation slowed again to 2.0% Y/Y (2.3% Feb, 3.1% Jan), now well off January's spike, while fresh food inflation rebounded to 4.4% Y/Y (4.3% Feb, 4.4% Jan), still notably above December's 3.8% Y/Y.
• Non-food inflation picked up to 0.1% Y/Y (-0.1% Feb, 0.3% Jan), back in positive territory but still hovering around flat. The press release notes some Six Nations-driven promotions on TVs and sound systems, as well as on clothing and footwear helping the rate lower.
• Both the slightly earlier collection date vs official CPI and, more importantly, the narrower range of goods means the effects of the shock to energy prices are probably not as pronounced here as they will be in the official ONS CPI data (due 22nd April). The release covers the retail prices of 500 commonly-bought high street products between 1-7 March 2026.
• Comments from the press release: "Higher costs resulting from the conflict in the Middle East are starting to feed into supply chains. While retailers will work with their suppliers to mitigate the impact on prices as far as possible, inflation will rise, although there are no indications it will reach the peaks of the last spike in April 2023."
• "Whilst it’s good news that food inflation slowed in recent weeks, shoppers are increasingly conscious of the amount of money they are spending at the checkout, and non-food retailers will be hoping for a good Easter to drive sales. However, if price rises come through the supply chain over the next few months, this has the potential to take the edge off retail growth.”