MYR: USD/MYR – Positive MYR Bias Maintained, Approaching Key Technical Levels
Nov-29 01:01
- USD/MYR is down at 4.4392 in Kuala Lumpur morning; versus yesterday's close of 4.4453
- The Ringgit is within touching distance of the 20-day EMA of 4.4316, and the 100-day EMA 4.4260.
- Bloomberg Asia dollar spot index is higher by 0.02% at the open and the Bloomberg Dollar spot index is 0.10% lower.
- USD/MYR one-month implied volatility is down this morning to 5.7350%, versus 5.7425% yesterday’s close.
- Malaysia's 10-year bond yield is at 3.815%
- Malaysia 5 yr USD CDS at 45bps (yesterday close 44bp, 5-year low 32bp in 2020).
Headlines
- Power utility company Tenaga Nasional has shut 14 substations in the east Malaysian state of Kelantan due to the worsening flood situation there, according to a statement (source: BBG).
- Malaysian equities saw the highest net selling by global investors on Nov. 28 in more than nearly four years. (source: BBG).
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AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Richer After Largely In-Line Q3 CPI Data
Oct-30 00:45
ACGBs (YM flat & XM flat) are 1-2bps stronger after today’s Q3/September CPI release.
- Q3 headline CPI printed at 0.2% Q/Q bringing the annual rate to 2.8% from 3.8%, slightly lower than consensus, while the trimmed mean was in line at 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y with Q2 revised up to 4%. September’s trimmed mean eased 0.2pp to 3.2%. The focus is on underlying inflation given that the headline is temporarily being impacted by state and federal government electricity rebates.
- (ABS) "Annual Services inflation was 4.6 per cent in the September quarter, up from 4.5 per cent in the June quarter. Higher prices for rents, insurance and child care were the main contributors to Services inflation."
- Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest rally. The focus is now today's ADP employment data, GDP and Pending Home Sales.
- Cash ACGBs are flat on the day, ~2bps richer than pre-data levels, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +20bps.
- Swap rates are 1bp lower on the day.
- The bills strip is weaker, with pricing flat to -3. The 1st contract is underperforming.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps softer after the data, with late 2025 leading. A cumulative 3bps of easing is priced by year-end.
AUSTRALIA DATA: Limited Market Reaction To CPI, Trimmed Mean In line
Oct-30 00:38
The AUD/USD is little changed post the CPI print, last near 0.6555/60, down a touch versus pre data levels of 0.6560. NZD/USD is also tracking lower, so it may be other drivers in play. AU OIS is also little changed, while likewise for Aussie bond futures. The CPI print was close to expected. The trimmed mean at 3.5% y/y, down from a revised 4.0%y/y gain in Q2. Headline CPI was slightly below at 2.8% y/y (2.9% forecast).
AUSTRALIA DATA: Australia Q3 CPI +0.2% Q/Q; +2.8% Y/Y
Oct-30 00:37
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in the third quarter.
- The monthly CPI indicator rose 2.1% in the 12 months to September.
- Over the twelve months to the September 2024 quarter, the CPI rose 2.8%.
- The most significant price rises this quarter were Recreation and culture (+1.3%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.6%), and Alcohol and tobacco (+1.3%).
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