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AUSSIE BONDS: Richer With US Tsys, Risk-On After US-CH H/Ls

May-06 23:32

ACGBs (YM +3.0 & XM +2.5) are stronger after US tsys ended mostly richer, reacting to a strong 10-Year note auction. The move was generally across the board, resulting in the yield curve being relatively unchanged (2s10s +0.08 at 50.773).

  • After the US close, risk appetite is firmer post-headlines of US-China officials to meet this week to discuss trade issues.
  • The FOMC today will be watched closely, MNI Economist - "The FOMC will extend its series of rate holds to a third meeting in May, keeping the Fed funds target rate at 4.25-4.50% while maintaining its forward guidance in the Statement."
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +2bps.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings today. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 4% probability, with a cumulative 103bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%).
  • Today, the local calendar will see Foreign Reserves data.
  • The AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 3.75% 21 April 2037 bond today and A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2029 bond on Friday.

JGBS: Trading To Resume After Long Weekend

May-06 23:20

In post-Tokyo trade on Friday, JGB futures closed weaker, -15 compared to settlement levels. The local market was closed on Monday and Tuesday this week. 

  • Overnight, US tsys ended mostly richer, reacting to a strong 10-Year note auction. The move was generally across the board.
  • After the US close, risk appetite is firmer post-headlines of US-China officials to meet this week to discuss trade issues. From our policy team: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with China's "lead representative on economic matters" later this week in Switzerland, according to statements released Tuesday.
  • Further headlines have crossed from Bessent stating they will meet with Chinese officials this Saturday and Sunday. US equity futures have firmed, Eminis up by around 0.70%, while Nasdaq futures are +1.00% higher.
  • "The Bank of Japan will begin its own corporate wage survey. As the Bank of Japan aims to realize a virtuous cycle in which wages and prices rise together, there is a strong concern that wage increases at small and medium-sized enterprises that do not have labor unions and are not included in the Rengo survey are weak." - Kyodo News via BBG
  • Today, the local calendar will see Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMIs alongside BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-5-year and 25-year+ JGBs.

CROSS ASSET: Risk Appetite Firms on US-China Trade Talk Headlines

May-06 23:09

Risk appetite is firmer post headlines of US-China officials to meet this week to discuss trade issues. 

  • From our policy team: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with China's "lead representative on economic matters" later this week in Switzerland, according to statements released Tuesday.
  • Further headlines have crossed from Bessent stating they will meet with China officials this Saturday and Sunday
  • US equity futures have firmed, Eminis up by around 0.70%, while Nasdaq futures are +1.00% higher. For Eminis we are still sub recent highs of 5725, last near 5665.
  • In the FX space, yen is off around 0.55%, last near 143.25/30, while USD/CHF is up by a similar amount, tracking to 0.8260. AUD and NZD are outperforming, more so the AUD, which was last 0.6510/15. NZD/USD is close to 0.6015, just off session highs at 0.6022. NZD did rise as well on NZ jobs figures, which showed a slightly lower than expected jobless rate, but follow through is limited. USD/CNH is back close to 7.1950, up around 0.20% in CNH terms.
  • In commodities, gold is off 1.5%, but remains elevated near $3400.
  • Oil is 0.65% firmer for WTI, building on yesterday's +3.4% rise.