US DATA: Much Higher Response Rate For September's ‘First’ NFP Reading
Nov-20 13:53
- The response rate for this first release of payrolls data (establishment survey) jumped to 80.2% in September from 56.7% in August and a prior twelve-month average of 62% - see the below chart for context.
- This should give the Fed more confidence in the September uptick in jobs growth as it reduces scope for revisions come the next update, which we know won’t come until Dec 16 when the October establishment survey readings are bundled in with the regular November readings.
- That doesn’t rule out what can still be large revisions, but it adds to the likelihood that the first look at October data, when we do eventually receive it, should also be more accurate compared to first estimates from earlier this year.
- The BLS on today’s high response rate: “September estimates from the establishment survey include both data collected on our normal schedule prior to the shutdown and also September data that businesses self-reported electronically during the shutdown. As a result, the establishment survey collection rate (80.2 percent) for this initial release of September 2025 data is higher than usual.”
- As you can see though, this didn’t have an impact on the second preliminary response rate, at 89% vs 91% in the prior release.
- Separately, the response rate for the household survey (behind the u/e rate) was similar to recent months, at 68.9% vs 69.5% in August and 12-mth average of 68.5%. This isn’t revised from month-to-month, unlike the payrolls data, but instead it indicates scope for a continuation of typical volatility within u/e rate estimates.
- Fed Governor Waller discussed prospects for establishment survey revisions in Q&A on Monday: “It's not clear we're ever going to get a third revision or second revision to the September report. We might get some truncated first revision. Probably not going to get a second revision. First, the October report. We're not exactly sure what it's going to look like. How much was recorded? How much did we have? Are we going to get a second and third or a first revision second out of that data? I don't know. So that's going to be the tricky thing is without any revisions to the data, we don't really have a good idea of how accurate these numbers are going to be.”
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $5B World Bank 5Y SOFR Priced
Oct-21 13:53
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 10/21 $5B #World Bank 5Y SOFR+38
- 10/21 $2B *Kingdom of Sweden 3Y SOFR+26
- 10/21 $1.25B Albertsons 5.5NC2, 8.5NC3
- 10/21 $Benchmark Alberta 10Y SOFR+85a
- 10/21 $Benchmark ASB Bank 5Y +90a, 5Y SOFR
- 10/21 $Benchmark Oman Electricity 5Y Sukuk
- 10/21 $Benchmark Kazakhstan 5Y +90a
- 10/21 $Benchmark GS Caltex 5Y +115a
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Support Intact
Oct-21 13:46
- RES 4: 6850.87 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 6812.25 High Sep 9 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6775.50 @ 14:35 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 6621.99 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
- SUP 4: 6427.00 Low Sep 2
A bullish theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading above support at the 50-day EMA. The average, currently at 6621.99, has been pierced but remains intact - for now. Note that the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 marks the key short-term support. Clearance of this level would undermine a bull theme. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Oct 9 high.
EUR: FX Exchange traded Option
Oct-21 13:45
- EURUSD (4th Sep) 1.1700c, bought for 0.3430 in 1.62k (new position).
The underlying is already trading at 1.1785.
