US DATA: Mortgage Refinancing Surges On Lower Rates
MBA mortgage applications jumped last week as refis surged in response to a further decline in mortgage rates, building strongly on what had been signs of traction to lower rates in the week beforehand. It leaves the composite level of applications at their highest since April 2022.
- MBA composite mortgage applications jumped 29.7% (sa) last week to build on a solid 9.2% increase the week before that.
- As tends to be the case with spikes, it was driven by refis surging 57.7% after 12.2%, whilst new purchase applications increased a much steadier 2.9% after a decent 6.6%.
- A comparison with 2019 averages for context: Composite at 82% vs 63% last week, purchases at 67% vs 65% last week and refis at 92% vs 58% last week.
- It came as the 30Y conforming rate fell another 10bp to 6.39% for a fresh low since early Oct 2024. Mortgage rates have now fallen 30bps over the past three weeks.
- US Tsy Sec Bessent last month talked on wanting to keep the spread between mortgage rates and treasuries flat or even bring it down.
- The spread to average 10Y Tsy yields over the week ticked up to 234bps (+3.7bps) after last week’s 230bps (-10bps) was the lowest since Mar 2022.
- The spread to 10Y swaps meanwhile ticked up to 287bps (+1.7bp after -8.2bp) but broadly holds what had been a narrowing in recent weeks from the 300 +/-5bp range seen since reciprocal tariff announcements in early April, having previously averaged 285bp in Q1.
- As for other mortgage details, the jumbo rate shifted from trading 5bp inside the regular rate to 9bps over, the most it’s been over since February.
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US: Trump Wants To Remove Mail-in Ballots
Latest from President Trump on Truth social regarding mail-in ballots (MNI emphasis underlined):
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
I am going to lead a movement to get rid of MAIL-IN BALLOTS, and also, while we’re at it, Highly “Inaccurate,” Very Expensive, and Seriously Controversial VOTING MACHINES, which cost Ten Times more than accurate and sophisticated Watermark Paper, which is faster, and leaves NO DOUBT, at the end of the evening, as to who WON, and who LOST, the Election. We are now the only Country in the World that uses Mail-In Voting. All others gave it up because of the MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD ENCOUNTERED. WE WILL BEGIN THIS EFFORT, WHICH WILL BE STRONGLY OPPOSED BY THE DEMOCRATS BECAUSE THEY CHEAT AT LEVELS NEVER SEEN BEFORE, by signing an EXECUTIVE ORDER to help bring HONESTY to the 2026 Midterm Elections. Remember, the States are merely an “agent” for the Federal Government in counting and tabulating the votes. They must do what the Federal Government, as represented by the President of the United States, tells them, FOR THE GOOD OF OUR COUNTRY, to do. With their HORRIBLE Radical Left policies, like Open Borders, Men Playing in Women’s Sports, Transgender and “WOKE” for everyone, and so much more, Democrats are virtually Unelectable without using this completely disproven Mail-In SCAM. ELECTIONS CAN NEVER BE HONEST WITH MAIL IN BALLOTS/VOTING, and everybody, IN PARTICULAR THE DEMOCRATS, KNOWS THIS. I, AND THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, WILL FIGHT LIKE HELL TO BRING HONESTY AND INTEGRITY BACK TO OUR ELECTIONS. THE MAIL-IN BALLOT HOAX, USING VOTING MACHINES THAT ARE A COMPLETE AND TOTAL DISASTER, MUST END, NOW!!! REMEMBER, WITHOUT FAIR AND HONEST ELECTIONS, AND STRONG AND POWERFUL BORDERS, YOU DON’T HAVE EVEN A SEMBLANCE OF A COUNTRY. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!!! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERIC
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Remains Above Support
- On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
- In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a clear bear cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at $62.84, the Jun 24 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $58,17 the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $70.51, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $64.94, the 50-day EMA.
EGB OPTIONS: Bund Put Buyer
RXU5 127 puts, paper pays 2.0 in 3.625k
