US DATA: Mortgage Rates Steady As Swap Spread Narrows Further
Nov-12 12:28
Mortgage applications were essentially unchanged last week even if it masked a strong uptick in new purchase applications. Mortgage rates have been steady in recent weeks, benefiting from a sizeable tightening in spreads to swap rates.
- MBA composite mortgage applications inched 0.6% higher last week (sa) after -1.9% and 7.1% in the previous two weeks.
- The details were a little more interesting than that suggests though, with new purchase applications increasing 5.8% (largest since early Sept and before that early June) compared to refi applications slipping -3.4%.
- Levels relative to 2019 average for context: composite 71%, new purchases 67%, refis 72%.
- The flatlining in overall activity came as the 30Y conforming rate ticked up 3bps to 6.34% after the 6.30% two weeks prior had been the lowest since Sep 2024.
- The relative stability in mortgages rates in the latest few weeks has come with a further tightening in spreads to swap rates.
- The 30Y mortgage rate to the average 10Y swap rate through the week fell further to 267bps, a fresh low since Apr 2022, compared to an average 285bp in Q1 and a rough range of 300 +/-5bp for some months after reciprocal tariff announcements in April prompted some additional caution in lending standards.
- This narrowing in spreads will be well received by the Trump administration.
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GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Week Ahead 13-19 October
Oct-13 12:27
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(MNI) London – All timings are subject to change.
Monday 13 October:
- Middle East: A ‘peace summit’ takes place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, and follows the release of all remaining living hostages held by Hamas. The high-profile summit will see US President Donald Trump, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, UK PM Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan. Early on 13 October, it was reported that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu would attend at short notice, but this proved to be unfounded, with Netanyahu’s office citing the proximity of a Jewish holiday.
US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Oct-13 12:26
SOFR and Treasury option flow rather light, cash closed due to Columbus Day holiday. Underlying futures steady (TYZ5) to mixed, short end mildly firmer while projected rate cut pricing rises vs. late Friday levels (*): Oct'25 at -24.1bp (-24.2bp), Dec'25 at -47.8bp (-47.9bp), Jan'26 at -59.8bp (-60.2bp), Mar'26 at -71.5bp (-72.3bp).
- SOFR Options
- 1,500 SFRH6 97.00/97.50/97.75 broken call trees
- over 5,000 SFRZ5 97.00 calls outright ref 96.36 to -.635
- 1,800 0QZ5 97.18 calls, 9.0 ref 97.00
- over 7,875 SFRZ5 96.50/97.00 1x2 call spds ref 96.36
- 2,000 SFRZ5 96.12/96.25 put spds ref 96.355
- 2,100 SFRZ5 96.25/96.31/96.50/96.56 call condors ref 96.355
- 1,500 SFRZ5 96.31/96.50 call spds ref 96.35
- Treasury Options:
- 1,100 TYX5 112/112.5/113/113.5 put condors ref 113-01.5
- 1,500 TYX5 114/115 call spds ref 113-02
- over 4,500 TYX5 113.5 calls, 16 ref 113-01.5
- 1,000 USX5 117/117.5/118 call flys ref 117-24
- 2,600 TYX5 112.5 puts, 13 ref 112-31.5
- 1,600 TYX5 109.5 puts, 1 ref 112-31.5
- over 8,300 TYZ5 112.5 puts, ref 113-00
SCHATZ: Swap related Trade
Oct-13 12:25
Schatz Swap related Trade, suggest receiver:
- DUZ5 10k at 107.15.
