UK DATA: Mortgage Approvals and Consumer Credit on the Weaker Side in December

US E-mini futures have been biased lower through today’s session, narrowing the gap to support at the 20-day EMA (6909.50) and the December 19 high (6895.25). Futures have struggled to consolidate above the 7,000 figure in recent weeks. 

• Analysts are almost universally bullish on the S&P 500’s prospects next year. A Bloomberg survey comprising 21 estimates had a median end-2026 forecast of 7,500 (low: 7,000; high: 8,100).
• Key focus in the year-ahead will naturally be on the sustainability of AI and AI-adjacent companies’ valuations, with increasing scrutiny on the profitability of substantial capex investments.
• Elsewhere, the path for Fed policy remains uncertain. The key paragraph in yesterday’s December meeting minutes indicated (as did the meeting Dot Plot) a sizeable minority of members seeing no further easing through end-2026, but a base case among a solid if narrow majority that further limited cuts would ensue if the data cooperate.
• Finally, US tax rebates embedded in the OBBBA may provide a tailwind to consumption in the first half of next year, potentially supporting more domestically-sensitive equities that have struggled in 2025..
• The geopolitical environment and volatility in US government policy will present ongoing headline risks to digest. 

Gilt futures briefly extend to fresh weekly highs before fading, currently +19 ticks at 91.40. Initial resistance is the December 17 high at 91.78.

Yields are up to 2.5bps lower across the curve, with 10s attempting to consolidate below 4.50%.

Domestic news flow usurpingly quiet ahead of today’s early close.

The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and gains are considered corrective - for now. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A key support and the bear trigger at $56.11, the Oct 17 low, has recently been breached. The break highlights a continuation of the downtrend and opens $53.77, a Fibonacci projection. Key S/T resistance is $61.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $58.56, the 50- day EMA. The trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and a sharp sell-off this week appears corrective - for now. The trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. First support at $4324.8, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would expose the 50-day EMA at $4183.5. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open $4578.3, a Fibonacci projection.

• WTI Crude up $0.2 or +0.35% at $58.13
• Natural Gas down $0.15 or -3.85% at $3.819
• Gold spot down $11.96 or -0.28% at $4328.47
• Copper down $12.65 or -2.19% at $565.25
• Silver down $4.32 or -5.66% at $72.0649
• Platinum down $152.2 or -6.98% at $2030.63