USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance

• Still weaker, stocks are climbing off early Friday session lows as markets digested Pres Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the replacement for Fed Chairman Powell, followed by the return of Fed speakers voicing their opinions on this week's policy announcement and the potential appointment of Kevin Warsh.
• Currently, the DJIA trades down 239.18 points (-0.49%) at 48,831.63 vs. 48,459.88 low, S&P E-Mini futures down 29.75 points (-0.43%) at 6,963.75 vs. 6,917.50 low, Nasdaq down 199.6 points (-0.8%) at 23,487.44 vs. 23,351.55 low.
• A combination of IT, Materials and Consumer Discretionary sector shares continued to lead declines in late trade, software/services and chip makers weighed on the IT sector after Microsoft's broad decline yesterday tied to weak cloud and software guidance: KLA Corp -14.17%, AppLovin Corp -13.77%, Western Digital -11.34%, Take-Two Interactive Software -9.70% and Seagate Technology -8.11%.
• Miners (and chemical) stocks weighed on the Materials sector with Gold falling appr $475.0 to $4,900.0 the day after setting a new record high of 5,590.10: Newmont Corp -10.51%, Freeport-McMoRan -7.03% and Albemarle Corp -5.72%. Meanwhile, travel stocks led declines in the Discretionary sector: Royal Caribbean Cruises -6.96%, Norwegian Cruise Line -4.32%.
• On the positive side, better than expected earnings (or at least less bad as in the case of Charter Communications) helped the following lead advances throughout the session: Deckers Outdoor +17.49%, Verizon Communications +11.55%, Sandisk Corp +8.80%, Charter Communications +7.69%, AT&T +3.88% and T-Mobile US +3.74%.

• The broad rally in the US dollar on Friday has prompted a further extreme sell-off in metals prices, particularly precious metals which have plunged sharply.
• Headlines suggesting that Iran want to make a deal and the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as President Trump's nomination for the new Fed Chair have driven the dramatic corrections.
• Spot gold fell to a low of $4,690/oz in recent trade, down more than $700 on the day, before bouncing slightly. At typing, gold is down by 9.0% around $4,891/oz.
• Today’s correction has allowed an overbought trend to unwind. Price has pierced firm support at $4,840, the 20-day EMA, as well as $4,756.1, the Jan 21 low. A clear break of these levels would expose $4,546.3, the 50-day EMA.
• Silver has seen an even more extreme correction, falling to a low of $73.96/oz in recent trade, almost 40% below yesterday’s record high.
• Currently, silver is down by over 27% on the session around $84.3/oz.
• The move lower has seen price break below the 20-day EMA at $93.75, and briefly pierce the 50-day EMA at $79.36, before bouncing slightly.
• Elsewhere, crude markets flipped into daily losses following Trump’s comments on Iran looking to make a deal. However, the continued geopolitical risk premium provides WTI with a gain of around 6.5% on the week.
• WTI Mar 26 is down by 0.5% at $65.1/bbl.
• A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact and a clear break of key resistance at $66.49, the Jul 30 2025 high, would open $69.80, the Jun 23 high ‘25 high.

• RES 4: 157.43 Low Jan 19 
• RES 3: 156.03 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 155.80 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 154.76 High Jan 30  
• PRICE: 154.36 @ 16:34 GMT Jan 30 
• SUP 1: 152.10 Low Jan 27
• SUP 2: 151.98 38.2% of the Apr 22 ‘25 - Jan 14 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: 151.54 Low Oct 29 ‘25
• SUP 4: 150.99 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 ‘25 low 

Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY are unchanged and a bear cycle remains intact, despite the modest bounce Friday. Price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 151.98 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 155.80, the 50-day EMA. A recovery would allow an oversold position to unwind.