EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance

• Risk sentiment has been buoyed Monday, amid optimism surrounding US-China trade negotiations which comes ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting. While the USD index came under some pressure, a further sharp unwind for spot gold has offset the greenback pessimism. AUD outperforms all others in G10, most notably impacted owing to its high beta status and sensitivity to the Chinese economy.
• Furthermore, RBA Bullock's comments playing down recent job weakness and mentioning they are in a "pretty good" position on both jobs and CPI added to topside momentum for AUDUSD, which remains 0.65% higher on the session above 0.6550. Today’s boost has strengthened a bullish underlying theme, and spot has narrowed the gap to initial resistance at 0.6574, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg.
• Higher core yields and the sharp gains for major equity benchmarks initially weighed on the Japanese Yen, with USDJPY extending its most recent rally ahead of the European open to trade within one pip of the key 153.27. Price action did reverse amid a broader dollar offer ahead of the NY crossover, however, USDJPY’s dip to 152.57 was very short-lived. Spot has returned back above 153.00, and the pair looks set to extend a winning streak to seven consecutive sessions. Clearance of the bull trigger at 153.27 would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend.
• Despite the generally flat USD Index, USDCNH has broken lower today, building on a strong session for China FX overnight. The rate has tested below 7.1050 for the lowest print since September, narrowing the gap with key support into 7.0851, the cycle low. Moves follow the stronger-than-expected CNY fix (7.0881, the lowest in over 12 months), consistent with the bank's long-held push for further internationalization and expanded use - which the bank reiterated on Friday last week after the conclusion of the government's 4th plenum.
• Central banks highlight this week's calendar, with the Bank of Canada and the Fed holding policy meetings on Wednesday, before the Bank of Japan and the ECB follow Thursday.

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• There is no tier 1 data this week which puts us at the mercy of external events and domestic fiscal headlines to some extent. However, this week will still see the release of some potentially relevant second tier data.
• We round up the most relevant fiscal headlines, their impacts and their potential costs.
• Overnight tonight we will receive the BRC monthly Shop Price Monitor (SPM) while overnight Tues/Wed we see the release of Brightmine pay data. We look ahead to both of these releases.
• Friday will see the release of Blue / Pink Book GDP / balance of payment revisions. We don't think these will be fully incorporated into either the OBR's EFO Budget forecasts or the BOE's November MPR forecasts.

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 10/27 $3.5B #Philip Morris $750M 3Y +43, $300M 3Y SOFR+66, $750M 5Y +58, $850M 7Y +68, $850M 10Y +78
• 10/27 $1.5B #Southwest Airline $750M 3Y +88, $10Y +128
• 10/27 $1B #Prologis Targeted Fund $400M +5Y +70, $600M +10Y +90
• 10/27 $1B #Lloyds PerpNC10 6.625%
• 10/27 $1B #DNB Bank 6NC5 +77
• 10/27 $500M Kaiser Aluminum 8.3NC3.3 6%a 
• 10/27 $Benchmark Aker BP 10Y +160a
• 10/27 $Benchmark Turkiye 11Y 7.15%
• 10/27 $Benchmark Procter Gamble 7Y +55a, 10Y +60a
• 10/27 $Benchmark HCA Inc 5Y +110a, 7Y +120a, 10Y +130a, 30Y +150a
• 10/27 $Benchmark Sanofi 2Y +45a, 2Y SOFR, 3Y +50a, 3Y SOFR, 7Y +70a
• 10/27 $Benchmark Amphenol 2Y +60a, 2Y SOFR, 3Y +70a, 5Y +80a, 7Y +90a, 10Y +95a, 30Y +110a
• 10/27 $Benchmark America Airlines investor calls
• Expected Tuesday
  • 10/28 $2B VoltaGrid 5NC2
  • 10/28 $Benchmark Republic of Finland 5y +40a, 5Y SOFR