LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Precursor to Fed Powell Testimony; Employ Data
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Mar-06 1000 Factory Orders (1.8%, -1.8%); Ex Trans (-1.2%, --)
- Mar-06 1000 Durable Goods Orders (-4.5%, -4.5%); Ex Trans (0.7%, 0.7%)
- Mar-06 1000 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (0.8%, --)
- Mar-06 1000 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (1.1%, --)
- Mar-06 1130 US Tsys $57B 13W, $48B 26W bill auctions
- Salient events later in the week:
- Fed Chair Powell semi-annual mon-pol report to Congress, Tue 1000ET
- Fed Chair Powell report to Congress: House Fncl Srvcs, Wed 1000ET
- ADP employment data for Feb (106k prior, 200k est), Wed 0815ET
- NFP employment data for Feb (517k prior, 200k est), Fri 0830ET
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USDCAD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
- RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
- RES 1: 1.3472/3521 High Jan 31 / 19 and key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 1.3331 @ 16:52 GMT Feb 1
- SUP 1: 1.3289 Low Feb 1 and intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
- SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing
USDCAD bearish trend conditions remain intact and the pair reversed sharply lower from Tuesday's high. A continuation lower would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for weakness towards 1.3226, the Nov 13 low and the bear trigger. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. On the upside, the pair needs to clear 1.3521, the Jan 19 high, to signal a reversal.
US: UK: Boris Johnson Meets With Republican Lawmakers
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is meeting with lawmakers from Republican Study Committee - the largest bloc of House Republicans.
- Today's meetings follows one yesterday with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to lobby continued US support for the Ukraine war effort.
- House Republicans are seen as less enthusiastic than Senate Republicans, with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) pledging last year to re-evaluate the "blank cheque" for Ukraine.
- McCarthy's upcoming negotiations with President Biden over government spending are also likely to put defence spending in the firing line, as he has ruled out cuts to Social Security and Medicare.
- The Pew Research Center reported today that 40% of Republican voters now believe the US is doing "too much" to help Ukraine, up from 9% in March last year.
- Johnson was amongst the most hawkish European leaders on Russia during his time in Downing Street and has continued championing the cause out of office. This week he called for allies to escalate aid to Ukraine to include US-made F16 fighter planes. A suggestion rejected by President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
AUDUSD TECHS: Support At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
- RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
- RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
- RES 1: 0.7142 High Jan 26
- PRICE: 0.7070 @ 16:51 GMT Feb 1
- SUP 1: 0.6984/6976 Low Jan 31 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6872 Low Jan 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6845 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3 and key support
AUDUSD recovered off lows Tuesday. The recent pullback appears corrective and the uptrend remains intact. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of 0.7063, the Jan 18 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a move to 0.7172 next, a Fibonacci projection. Short-term support is seen at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6976. A break would be bearish.
