MNI US OPEN - Oil Surges as US, EU Target Russian Energy

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• OIL RALLIES AS US TARGETS LUKOIL & ROSNEFT, TRIGGERING A 'PLUNGE' IN FLOW TO INDIA
• EU ADOPTS FRESH SANCTIONS PACKAGE TO ADD FURTHER PRESSURE TO RUSSIAN ENERGY
• CHINA, US TO START NEW ROUND OF TRADE TALKS IN MALAYSIA TOMORROW
• CARNEY PLEDGES 'BIG SWING' BUDGET, FEATURING HISTORIC DEFICIT

Figure 1: WTI-Brent Spread Pressured as US measures restrict flow to India

Source: MNI / Bloomberg Finance L.P.

NEWS

EU/RUSSIA (BBG): EU Adopts New Sanctions Package That Targets Russian Energy
The European Union adopted a new package of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure, joining a new US push to chip away at Moscow’s ability to wage its war against Ukraine. The EU measures will ban LNG imports from 2027, according to a statement from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The EU will also impose a full transaction ban on two major Russian oil companies, Rosneft PJSC and Gazpromneft, and sanction 118 additional so-called shadow fleet vessels, which have enabled Russia to evade previous measures.

US/RUSSIA (WSJ): U.S. Imposes Substantial New Sanctions on Russian Oil Giants
President Trump has announced substantial new sanctions on Russia's two biggest oil companies as frustration in Washington grows over the war in Ukraine. The new sanctions, which would be the first direct U.S. measures on Russia during the second Trump administration, target Lukoil and Rosneft as well as nearly three dozen of their subsidiaries. The U.S. sanctions could bar foreign countries or companies from conducting business with the oil companies and cut them off from much of the international financial system.

US/INDIA (BBG): India Refiners Say Russia Oil Flows Will Plunge on Sanctions
Flows of Russian oil to major Indian refiners — a boon for both countries’ economies over the past three years — are expected to fall to near zero after the US imposed sanctions on crude giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC. Senior executives at the processors said the latest restrictions announced by Washington overnight, blacklisting Russia’s largest producers, would make it all but impossible for flows to continue. They asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.

US/CHINA (MNI): China, U.S. To Talk In Malaysia Starting Friday
China and the U.S. will hold a new round of trade talks in Malaysia from Oct 24 to 27, according to a statement on the Ministry of Commerce website Thursday. By mutual agreement, Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to hold economic and trade negotiations with the U.S., the statement said.

MNI US CPI Preview: The Year’s Last ‘Reliable’ CPI Read? https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Oct2025_f7e5818f86.pdf

• The delayed September CPI report is due for release on Friday Oct 24 at 0830ET, with the BLS making an exception on social security payments grounds during the government shutdown.
• It’s possibly the last report that won’t be adversely impacted by the shutdown until the new year, although quality concerns were already elevated with high reliance on imputed values back in August.
• This would mark a marginal sequential acceleration for headline as energy strength offsets a slight moderation in core after a stronger than expected 0.35% M/M in August.

MNI CBRT Preview - October 2025: Data Warrants Slower Easing https://media.marketnews.com/MNICBRT_Prev_Oct25_ea74edf76d.pdf

• The CBRT is expected to moderate its easing pace from the 250bp reduction delivered last month following the sharp jump in monthly CPI in September.
• That would be consistent with the Bank’s data-dependent forward guidance, while central bank officials have underlined their commitment to ensuring inflation falls in line with the interim targets.

CANADA (MNI): Carney Pledges `Big Swing' Budget To Rebuild Exports
Prime Minister Mark Carney signaled that Canada’s Nov. 4 budget will feature a historic deficit aimed at spurring investment, doubling non-U.S. exports over the next decade, and shielding domestic industries from American tariffs. "We used to take big, bold risks in this country. It is time to swing for the fences again," Carney said Tuesday night in what his office billed as a pre-budget speech. 

SOUTH KOREA (MNI): BOK Keeps Policy Rate at 2.50%
The Bank of Korea on Thursday kept its base interest rate unchanged at 2.50% for a third consecutive meeting, as expected, adopting a wait-and-see stance amid concerns over an overheated real-estate market, according to Yonhap News Agency. The Bank said it would closely monitor economic and inflation trends ahead of its next policy meeting on Nov 27, with many board members maintaining a bias toward easing.

JAPAN (BBG): Japan’s Unions Seek Minimum 5% Wage Hike in Upcoming Talks
Japan’s largest labor union federation will keep seeking at least a 5% wage hike in next year’s pay talks, as new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi attempts to keep the country’s wage momentum going. In negotiations starting later this year, Rengo will seek total pay increases of 5% or more, including a 3% rise in base salary, according to goals clarified in its basic policy framework Thursday. A year ago the annual talks began with the same targets, ultimately delivering average gains of 5.25% overall for 2025. The goals will be officially confirmed in late November.

SWITZERLAND (MNI): SNB Sees FX Move Risk For Inflation - Sept Minutes
With monetary policy having "an expansionary effect” further easing was "not appropriate", the inaugural publication of the Swiss National Bank's policy meeting minutes showed on Thursday. The inflation and economic outlook supported keeping the policy rate at 0%, but the Governing Board "remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary," and will "continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust monetary policy if necessary

BONDS (BBG): Europe’s Primary Bond Market Sees First Pulled Deal Since June
Europe’s primary debt market has just logged its first canceled bond deal since the summer — a rare blemish on what’s been a record-breaking run all year. Norway’s CMB Tech has decided not to proceed with the sale of a $300 million five-year note, it said in a filing this morning, citing “less favourable” indicative terms offered under current market conditions “compared to other funding sources available to the company.”

CORPORATE (BBG): Tesla’s Profit Tumbles as Costs Undermine Record EV Sales
Tesla Inc.’s profit plunged despite a record quarter of vehicle sales, reflecting ongoing strains on the automotive business that Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk is shifting focus away from. Musk spent much of Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call discussing ambitious but opaque initiatives, including humanoid robot and artificial intelligence programs, and also pleaded with investors to back his trillion-dollar compensation package.

DATA

MNI: FRANCE OCT MANUF SENTIMENT 101 (VS 97 SEP)

BONDS: Core FI Yields Pushed Higher By Crude Rally; 10-year Gilt/Bund Steady

• Little change in the 10-year Gilt/Bund spread this morning, with yields across core FI biased higher amid a near-5% rally in crude oil benchmarks. The spread is currently at ~185.5bps, having tightened by almost 20bps over the last two weeks.
• Crude futures have surged after the US Treasury announced sanctions on large Russian oil producers. Meanwhile, the EU has agreed to ban Russian LNG from 2027 as part of its 19th sanctions package.
• 10-year Gilt yields are up 2bps at 4.44%, but are still down almost 10bps on the week following the September public sector finance (Tuesday) and inflation (yesterday) data releases. 10-year Bund yields are up 1.8bps at 2.58%, with the 2.60% figure the main topside level to note.
• The gilt curve has seen a fairly uniform shift higher today, while the German curve has lightly bear steepened.
• In futures, Bunds are -15 ticks at 129.95 while Gilts are -19 ticks at 93.35.
• Today’s 4.125% Mar-31 Gilt launch saw mixed results, but the market impact was limited.
• Germany’s council of tax experts revised up its 2025-2029 tax revenue estimate by E33.6bln, below the E50-100bln anticipated by Handelsblatt. However, these figures are relatively insignificant in the grand scheme of things.
• UK October CBI industrial trends data is due at 1100BST, while Eurozone October flash consumer confidence is due this afternoon. Neither are usually market movers.
• BOE’s Dhingra speaks at 1400BST, but broader focus remains on tomorrow’s October flash PMIs.

FOREX: Crude Surge Boosts NOK, But Broader G10 Awaiting US CPI

• The targeting of Lukoil and Rosneft by the US administration has led to a surge in crude oil futures, which has filtered well through to FX markets. Resultantly, NOK trades markedly higher, and energy importers are under pressure. As such, JPY is among the poorest performers so far Thursday. The initial move on sanctions by the Treasury was later underpinned by India noting they are likely to make massive cuts in Russian crude imports due to sanctions from the US and Europe.
• As such, NOK outperforms. EURNOK is set for its fifth consecutive negative session and just broke below initial support at 11.58, putting sights on 11.5387 (Sep 15 low). Global developments are set to continue dictating NOK price action in the near-term, with little in the way of market moving domestic data due ahead of Norges Bank's November decision.
• JPY meanwhile is the clear underperformer in G10. USDJPY hovers at its October 14 high of 152.61, with the bull trigger defined as 153.27, the October 10 high. The 50-day EMA is key support for the pair. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper pullback.
• SNB meeting minutes from the September meeting mostly reaffirmed the narrative that the Governing Board was quite far away from further easing in their last decision, infitting with the initial policy statement and Q&A. EURCHF is consolidating its bounce from key clustered support between 0.9206/21, again underpinning the relevance of that area as a mid-term pivot point.
• Apart from further potential geopolitical developments, US CPI will highlight the remainder of the week, possibly being the last report that won’t be adversely impacted by the shutdown until the new year. The labor market is driving the Fed rate cut profile currently but broad-based upside surprises in this September report can see this path come into question in the near-term.
• Some ECB speakers are scheduled to speak in the next couple of days, but, as previously, are mostly expected to reiterate previous "rates are in a good place" rhetoric.

EQUITIES: Trend Structure in EStoxx50 Remains Bullish

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading above the 50-day EMA. The average, currently at 6632.20, has been pierced but remains intact - for now. Note that the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 marks the key short-term support. The trend structure in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. The breach of 5689.00, the Oct 2 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 666.18 pts or -1.35% at 48641.61 and the TOPIX ended 12.65 pts lower or -0.39% at 3253.78.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 8.652 pts or +0.22% at 3922.41 and the HANG SENG ended 186.21 pts higher or +0.72% at 25967.98.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 78.01 pts or -0.32% at 24071.87, FTSE 100 higher by 6.31 pts or +0.07% at 9521.26, CAC 40 up 33.81 pts or +0.41% at 8240.68 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 12.24 pts or +0.22% at 5651.45
• Dow Jones mini down 55 pts or -0.12% at 46727, S&P 500 mini up 9.75 pts or +0.14% at 6746.75, NASDAQ mini up 53.75 pts or +0.21% at 25093.

COMMODITIES: WTI Rallies on Latest Russian Sanctions Pressure

A sharp pullback in Gold this week appears corrective - for now. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at $4037.8, has been pierced. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact despite the latest recovery - a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.

• WTI Crude up $2.31 or +3.95% at $60.75
• Natural Gas up $0.01 or +0.23% at $3.46
• Gold spot up $13.74 or +0.34% at $4113.99
• Copper up $8.55 or +1.71% at $508.7
• Silver up $0.67 or +1.37% at $49.1562
• Platinum up $22.48 or +1.38% at $1655.17

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
23/10/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
23/10/2025	1000/1100	**	GB	CBI Industrial Trends
23/10/2025	1100/0700	***	TR	Turkey Benchmark Rate
23/10/2025	-		EU	ECB Lagarde at Euro Summit in Brussels
23/10/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
23/10/2025	1230/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
23/10/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	Retail Trade
23/10/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	Retail Trade
23/10/2025	1330/1530		EU	ECB Lane Award Acceptance Speech
23/10/2025	1400/1000	***	US	NAR existing home sales
23/10/2025	1400/1600	**	EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
23/10/2025	1400/1000		US	Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman
23/10/2025	1425/1025		US	Fed Governor Michael Barr
23/10/2025	1430/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
23/10/2025	1500/1100	**	US	Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
23/10/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result
23/10/2025	1530/1130	**	US	US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result
23/10/2025	1700/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note
24/10/2025	2200/0900	***	AU	Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI
24/10/2025	2301/0001	**	GB	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
24/10/2025	2330/0830	***	JP	CPI
24/10/2025	0030/0930	**	JP	Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
24/10/2025	0600/0800	**	SE	PPI
24/10/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Retail Sales
24/10/2025	0645/0845	**	FR	Consumer Sentiment
24/10/2025	0700/0900	**	ES	PPI
24/10/2025	0715/0915	**	FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
24/10/2025	0715/0915	**	FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/10/2025	0730/0930	**	DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
24/10/2025	0730/0930	**	DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/10/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
24/10/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
24/10/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
24/10/2025	0800/1000		EU	ECB Cipollone Fireside Chat on International Finance
24/10/2025	0830/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
24/10/2025	0830/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Services PMI flash
24/10/2025	0830/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Composite PMI flash
24/10/2025	1200/0800	**	BR	Brazil Preliminary CPI
24/10/2025	1230/0830	***	US	CPI
24/10/2025	1230/0830	***	US	CPI
24/10/2025	1230/0830	***	US	CPI
24/10/2025	1300/1500	**	BE	BNB Business Confidence
24/10/2025	1345/0945	***	US	S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash)
24/10/2025	1345/0945	***	US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
24/10/2025	1400/1000	***	US	New Home Sales
24/10/2025	1400/1000	***	US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
24/10/2025	1400/1000	**	US	University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation
24/10/2025	1400/1000	***	US	New Home Sales
24/10/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
24/10/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly